The first day of quarterfinals was amazing. Nishikori won another wild 5 setter, this time over Stan Wawrinka, and I’m currently watching the Murray vs Djokovic match with Djokovic up a set and them on serve heading into another tie break. Tomorrow the matches are also very interesting. I for one am very excited about the Monfils vs Federer match, but I won’t be betting on it for reasons I will explain below.
Tomas Berdych vs Marin Cilic
- Tomas Berdych 1.57
- Marin Cilic 2.58
I’ve been betting against Berdych a lot this tournament, but he keeps finding a way to win matches. He looked really good against Thiem and the draw has really opened up for him to make the semi’s. He’s a big favourite in this match and I am going to finally take him to win a match. He has ripped through his competition fairly easily, except for a 5 setter in the second round against Klizan. Cilic has come through a couple of tough matches against Gilles Simon and Kevin Anderson in the last two rounds, but he’s been favoured in each of his matches, until this one. Berdych owns a 5-3 record over Cilic, and two of those losses to Cilic came on grass courts. On hard courts Berdych owns a 3-1 record.
Play: Berdych 1.57
Gael Monfils vs Roger Federer
- Gael Monfils 4.20
- Roger Federer 1.25
Monfils has had an unreal tournament so far. He knocked off Dimitrov in three straight sets in round 4 and I personally had Dimitrov making it to at least the semi-finals of this tournament. His win over Gasquet in the the third round was also a big win. Monfils has had a very solid hard court season, with his losses coming to just Djokovic and Federer in Toronto and Cincinnati. And he was able to take a set off of each of these superstars. Federer is also playing unbelievable tennis and I think Federer wins this match, but I’m nervous about Monfils and I do think Gael has the ability to beat Federer. He did take a set off Federer in Cincinnati and he had actually won their last two hard court battles.
I’m expecting this to be a very tight match that goes at least 4 sets. With Federer’s current form I do think he will be able to win the match, but I’m not going to be putting any money down at these odds.