I had two picks this past week and each almost hit the spread exactly. The Lions lost by two points, but luckily we had them at +3, which won us the spread bet. The Chiefs won by 4 points in the Monday Night game, but we had them -4.5 at the beginning of the week, which unfortunately resulted in a 0.5 point loss for our pick. The spread in that Chiefs game was down to -3.5 by the weekend, so if you waited to place your wager you are likely in profit. I personally put the majority of my action down before the game yesterday at -3.5, so I’m happy with the result, but unfortunately it still goes on the record as a loss because we locked in the prediction when the line was -4.5. That 1-1 week brings the season record to 3-7 through week 4.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
- Atlanta +3
- Pittsburgh -3
The Falcons are just 1-3 on the season, but they haven’t played bad football. They’ve lost two straight heartbreakers at home. First they lost in OT to the Saints and then by 1 point to the Bengals this past week. These are two strong teams and the Falcons other loss to the Eagles is nothing to be ashamed of either. I still think the Falcons are a playoff team and I expect them to have a strong game in Pittsburgh this week.
The Steelers struggled to move the ball against the Ravens at home this past week and almost gave up a comeback to the Bucs the week before. The Steelers running game is weak without Le’Veon Bell in the lineup, with James Conner not being able to follow up a strong week 1 in the past 3 weeks.
I like Atlanta to pull off this minor upset in Pittsburgh this week and for the Steelers fans to really start asking for Bell to return.
Play: Falcons +3
Oakland Raiders @ LA Chargers
- Oakland +5.5
- Los Angeles -5.5
The Raiders have given up 123 points so far this season, which is the most in the AFC and second most in the NFL. The Raiders weren’t even able to slow down a Browns offense lead by rookie Baker Mayfield, and they gave up two long runs for touchdowns to Nick Chubbs this past week as well. Luckily for the Raiders their offense was able to rally and bail them out, but I don’t think that will be the case this week against the Chargers.
The Raiders have road losses to the Broncos and Dolphins this season, with both teams being below average NFL teams. The Chargers are 2-2 on the season, with their two losses coming to elite teams in the Chiefs and Rams, but their wins have been over weak opponents with LA beating the Bills and barely squeaking out a win over the 49ers this past week.
That said, I think this Chargers team has the ability to play solid football. Phillip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen are all terrific players on offense and the defense should be able to slow down the Raiders passing game.
I like the Chargers to come out with something to prove in this one and to run up the score against their division rivals.
Play: Chargers -5.5