NFL Week 4 Spread Betting Picks 2018

Week 3 in the NFL did not go my way.  The Jets were up 14-3 at the half against the Browns, but ended up dropping the ball in the second half, losing 21-17 to the Browns.  I had the Jets +3.5, so that was a tough way to start the week.  It didn’t get any better from there with the Saints coming back late to force overtime against the Falcons and then proceed to win the game, while I had the Falcons -3.  The Texans also did not get the job done against the Giants, which resulted in week 3 being an 0-3 week for my picks.  That brings the season record to 2-6 through 6 weeks.

I will be using for all of the spreads and picks below.  You can see our full SIA review here.  I have 2 picks this week.

Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

  • Detroit +3
  • Dallas -3

The Lions looked great against the Patriots this past week.  They finally were able to establish a running game on offense and I believe this is a huge key for their success this season.  Not only did the run game force the Pats defense to respect the run, opening up Tate, Golladay and Jones down the field, but it also allowed the Lions to control the clock and keep their defense off the field, which in turn allowed them to shut down the Pats offense.

With Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount playing well behind an offensive line that is actually opening up running lines I believe the Lions will have similar success in all areas against the Cowboys this week.  Dallas has absolutely no passing game and have only managed to score 41 points through 3 games this season.  If Detroit can have any success on offense, they should be able to win this game on the road.

The Lions seem to have turned a corner and I think they are buying into Matt Patricia as their head coach.  Another win here could do a lot towards this team gelling together and actually making a playoff push this season.

Play: Lions +3

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

  • Kansas City -4.5
  • Denver +4.5

Denver is 2-1, but the two wins were at home against a couple of weak teams in the Seahawks and Raiders.  This past week they lost on the road in Baltimore, and although their points against sits at just 70 through the first three games of this season, they’ve played three weak offenses.  I’m not convinced their defense is actually any good.

Even if the Broncos do have a solid D, I don’t think any NFL defense will be able to slow down the KC offense, the way it’s playing this year.  Pat Mahomes is setting records and with Hill, Kelce and Watkins as his weapons, I don’t see him slowing down anytime soon.  Kareem Hunt hasn’t even been part of the passing offense at all this year, but they are having no trouble moving the ball, getting first downs and into the end zone non stop.

I expect the Chiefs to run up the score in this game as well and for Denver fans to realize their two wins were simply against a couple weak teams to start the season.

Play: Chiefs -4.5

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