It’s Masters Week! The biggest golf tournament of the year takes place this week from Augusta National golf course. I’m personally coming in on a hot streak thanks to Russ Henley winning the Shell Houston Open last week. I had him at 40/1 in my picks article last week. Hopefully you guys were on him and cashed a nice pay day to boost your bankroll heading into The Masters.
This week I’m primarily looking at current form and history at The Masters when making my betting picks. The greens at Augusta are heavily undulated and knowing where to miss is huge at this golf course, which is why we see course specialists like Jordan Spieth find consistent success at the tournament. I’m also looking at shot shape. Lefties have done well at this tournament in the past with Bubba Watson winning twice and of course Phil Mickelson winning 3 times. Righties who use a draw will also have an advantage over golfers who hit fades due to the shape of several holes at Augusta.
Below I’ll provide my 6 top outright winner picks for the week. I’ll be using the best odds available from any of our top rated sportsbooks which you can see in the table below.
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Dustin Johnson 6/1 @ Bodog.eu
I really think DJ is going to win the tournament this week. He’s the favourite at 6/1 and I usually don’t like taking this short of odds on a player winning a golf tournament with 94 players, but the way he’s been playing is just too tough to overlook. Johnson has now won 3 straight tournaments, 2 of which were WGC events which include the toughest fields in golf. He’s finished top 6 in every tournament he’s finished this year (he was cut at the Farmers Insurance) and simply looks close to unstoppable.
After a rough first few years at The Masters, DJ seems to have figured out the course finishing 6th and then 4th in the past two tournaments. The adjustment on his drive to move the ball from a fade to a draw should also play huge dividends on this course and with his length and that shot shape DJ should have plenty of short wedges into the pins throughout the tournament.
The thing I like best about DJ is the fact that he doesn’t seem to get overwhelmed at all with the pressure of the situation. It’s almost like he doesn’t care. That levelheadedness and the fact that he knows if he even just brings his B game he will be in contention on Sunday makes him my favourite play this week.
Rickie Fowler 20/1 @ SportsInteraction.com
I’m going to pass on Spieth and McIlroy, both of who could win, but I think the external and internal pressure could cause a few mistakes for those top guys.
I’m going down the odds list a little bit and going with Rickie at 20/1. He’s playing some great golf, coming off a 3rd place finish at the Shell Houston Open last week, which goes along with 12th, 16th, 1st and 4th place finishes in his previous four tournaments. Rickie has found success at The Masters in the past, finishing 5th in 2014 and 12th in 2015. He did miss the cut last year, but he wasn’t playing great golf heading into the tournament, which is a stark contrast to this year.
Rickie has also always been a solid wind player and that could be a factor with high winds forecast for Thursday and Friday before calming down on the weekend.
Rickie is putting the lights out at the moment and if he can maintain that level of comfort on the greens at The Masters I think he has a great shot of being in contention come Sunday.
Lee Westwood 80/1 @ Bodog.eu
Westwood is another player who is terrific in the wind. He ranks second on tour in tee to green stats in high winds, which should give him a great shot at being high on the leaderboard heading into the weekend. Westwood also has amazing course history at The Masters with 5 top ten finishes in his last 8 tournaments at Augusta (and he also had an 11th). Last year he tied for 2nd with Jordan Spieth.
Westwood’s form isn’t the greatest having the missed cut last week, but he loves this tournament and I suspect that he was using the Houston Open as more of a tune up tournament.
At this price I think throwing some on Westwood each-way is a great option. He does have 3 top 5’s in his last 8 Masters appearances so getting him each-way to finish top 5 and 20/1 are great odds.
Adam Hadwin 80/1 @ Bet365.com
I would have liked to get Hadwin at closer to 100/1, but I still feel ok taking him at these odds. His recent form is amazing, following up his win at Valspar with a 6th place finished at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s striking the ball great and if he can hit the right level on the greens he should be able to knock down a lot of putts at Augusta.
The fact that this is his first trip to The Masters does cause some concern, but he seems like such an intelligent player that I think he will have the course figured out by the time the tournament begins on Thursday.
Hadwin is able to score consistently and can go very low as he showed by his 59 earlier this year. His tee to green game is on point right now and I think if he plays like he’s showed he’s capable of he will be among the leaders down the stretch and a few birdies on Sunday could win him the green jacket.
Kevin Kisner 125/1 @ Bodog.eu
Kisner is an absolute bargain value play at this price. He’s one of the guys in the tournament that could very well win. He’s playing some solid golf having a decent run at the WGC Match Play a couple weeks back, after finishing 2nd in the Arnold Palmer Invitational the week before.
He played in The Masters for the first time last year, finishing in 37th, which included a couple of blow up rounds. Kisner has the ability to hang with the top players and I can easily see him being in contention come Sunday. I love the each-way bet on Kisner because I think he has a great shot at finishing top 5, while maybe not actually getting it done and winning the tournament. Kisner does have a lot of 2nd places in his career, so I think taking the each-way with him is a smart move.
Hudson Swafford 200/1 @ Bodog.eu
If you’re looking for a real long shot, look no further than Hudson Swafford at 200/1. The big American has been playing great golf of late. He got a win at the CareerBuilder Challenge early in the season and followed that up with 3 straight missed cuts, which often happens with first time winners on the PGA Tour. Of late though he seems to have regained his form with 38th and 10th finishes, followed up by a 6th place finish last week in Houston.
Swafford is long off the tee and scores well on par 5’s. If he can reel in his approach shots I think he has a good chance at performing well at Augusta as a first timer.