The PGA Tour heads to Houston this week for the final tournament before The Masters. Last week, DJ was unbeatable at the WGC Match Play tournament, but I was able to hedge off of both Haas which I bet to win at 104/1 and McGirt at 290/1 to secure myself a tidy profit.
DJ is scheduled to play in this weeks Houston Open, but it seems like he is toying with a withdrawal, which would make sense after the amount of golf he played last weekend. If he does withdraw then this tournament becomes wide open. If he plays, I don’t know if anyone can beat him with his current form.
***If DJ does withdraw the odds of other top players will shorten, so it may be smart to get your bets in early this week and then hope for a withdrawal from the world #1.
This week I’m looking at strokes gained off the tee, birdie or better percentage and par 5 scoring as my main stats, but I’ll mostly be focusing on recent form and course history at the Golf Course of Houston.
Below I’ll provide my 6 top outright winner picks for the week. I’ll be using the best odds available from any of our top rated sportsbooks which you can see in the table below.
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Jon Rahm 12/1
Rahm is playing some great golf and looks poised to continue his great play this week in Houston. I don’t expect fatigue to be a significant factor for Rahm this week and as long as he’s fresh he should be in the running come Sunday. Rahm ranks 4th on tour in SGOTT and 6th in birdie or better percentage. He’s also ranked #5th in approaches from 175-200 yards, which seems to be a key distance this week in Houston. Add in his recent form that included a 2nd last week in the match play and a 3rd, 5th and 16th since his win at the Farmers Insurance and I think he’s a great bet this week at 12/1, especially if we get a DJ withdrawal.
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Fowler seems to be flying under the radar, while playing some great golf this season. He has great recent form with a 12th and a 16th following his win at the Honda Classic, and taking last week off should allow him to be fresh in Houston this week.
Rickie has finished top 10 in two of his last three showings at the Houston Open and if he can avoid a blowup round he will be in the mix down the stretch on Sunday.
Russell Henley 40/1
Henley is a horse for the course in Houston. He finished 5th, 4th and 7th in his last three appearances at the Houston Open. His game seems to be coming around with a 9th place finish at the Valspar a couple tournaments back.
Henley is a guy who has shown he can go low of late, but it’s the blowup rounds that have kept him from really finishing high in several tournaments this year. If he can avoid a blowup round and put down 4 solid rounds in Houston he has a great shot of getting the win. At these odds, with his confidence at this course, I like him this week.
Bryson DeChambeau 100/1
DeChambeau seems to have finally turned the corner with his game over the past couple tournaments. He finished tied for second last week in Puerto Rico and was among the leaders in the Valspar Open before a mediocre weekend.
When DeChambeau is playing well he can compete with the best golfers in the world and has shown the ability to get wins throughout his amateur and short pro career. An in-form DeChambeau at 100/1 is a great bet every week on tour.
DeChambeau drops a lot of birdies and also gains strokes off the tee, which should set him up to go low this week.
Ollie Schniederjans 110/1
Schniederjans is another young player who has the ability to hang with the best players in the game when he’s in form. Schniederjans is a very consistent golfer who is very strong with his long irons and performs well on par 5’s.
His problem is that he doesn’t score quite enough to quickly gain ground on opponents, but he does have the ability to score in bunches and if he can keep the bogies to a minimum throughout the tournament he has the ability to put together a few rounds in the 60’s, which would put him in contention on the weekend.
Andrew “Beef” Johnston 160/1
Johnston is starting to get his feet under him on the PGA Tour. He had a strong T10 showing at last weeks Puerto Rico Open and he should still be fresh after taking around a month off before playing in Puerto Rico. Johnston won on the European Tour last season and has shown that when he’s playing his best he can compete with the top players in the world. He proved this by finishing in 8th place at last seasons British Open.
At these odds I’m willing to take a flyer on Johnston, especially considering his odds are 125/1 at most other bookies.
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