Week 10 was a strange one in DFS. There were not many players who went off with big games and the ones that did were all very low owned due to some difficult match ups and some game scripts that were not at all expected. At running back Jeremy Langford went off against a Rams team that is normally decent against the run. The Bears, who were expected to lose this game (7.5 point dogs) gained the lead early and then hammered the Rams with Langford throughout. Charcandrick West and Matt Jones also went ham for over 30 points each, while both were very low owned and low priced due to the KC being up against a Broncos D that was expected to dominate the Chiefs and the fact that the Redskins running game has not done anything to this point in the season. Anyone who is on any of these 3 cheap backs that went off congratulations, you likely hit a decent cash because the majority of DFS players were very far away from these three.
My week 10 running back plays of Ingram and Martin didn’t go ham, but because there was only a few players who went off and they weren’t highly owned my last weeks picks did enough to keep me in contests in order to at least cash. Hopefully this week my plays will go off and put me in a better position to win a GPP.
***I also have a QB + receiver stacks targets post up.
My Top Plays
Charcandrick West ($4,500)
Charcandrick West absolutely went off last week for 31.10 DraftKings points and that was against a Broncos defense that generally keeps opposing running backs off the field. The Chiefs got up early and then West was given the ball a ton. He actually only had an average of 2.9 points per carry against the Broncos D, but he had 24 carries and added 3 catches for 92 yards and he had two touchdowns to go off in this game.
This week West is up against a Chargers defense that is just absolutely brutal against the run. Watching the Chargers D try to stop the run is almost laughable, so I’m expecting another big game from West. Add in the fact I’m expecting the Chiefs to be up against this Chargers team that doesn’t have a ton of weapons on offense at the moment either and I like West to get a lot of opportunities once again. This is an absolute steal and I will likely have West in every single one of my lineups.
Darren McFadden ($5,000)
McFadden is another steal at $5000. He had a rough week against a stout Tampa Bay run defense last week, but he’s still getting a ton of carries and against the 31st ranked Dolphins defense he’s in a great spot this week. McFadden is close to another plug and play this week. Add in the fact that Romo is likely back, which should help prevent the Dolphins from running away from the Cowboys in this one and I really like McFadden this week.
Devonta Freeman ($8,400)
Freeman is very expensive this week, but because it looks like I’m very comfortable paying down at other positions (the two RB’s above are examples of this), so I think I’ll definitely have the ability to fit Freeman into my lineup. And because I think Freeman has the highest ceiling of all running backs I have no problem paying up for him in some of my lineups despite his high price tag.
The Falcons are coming off a bye week against a Colts team playing without Andrew Luck. This basically guarantees to me that the Colts will not run away from the Falcons on the scoreboard. That should result in Freeman being featured by the offense throughout the game. I’ll probably be paying up for either Freeman or Julio Jones in the vast majority of my lineups because at least one of these two has to have a monster game, especially considering they will be rested coming off the bye.
Pivot Plays (Smaller Shares)
Lamar Miller ($6,200)
Lamar Miller is another great play this week in my opinion, but he won’t be in quite as many of my lineups as the players above. He has a great matchup against a Cowboys defense giving up the 4th most points to opposing running backs this season and since the Dolphins coaching change Miller has gone off for 20+ points in 4 of 5 games. Miller is very active in the passing game (average of 6 catches in the last 3 games) so his floor is very high and he’s shown the ability to go off for big games in the recent weeks.
He’s a definite possibility to be one of the top 5 RB’s this week.
DeMarco Murray ($6,000)
Ryan Mathews is going through concussion protocol this week and if he is forced to sit out this week Murray will have even more opportunities to rack up DK points. I’ll probably not have a ton of his shares, but with Mathews out and QB Sam Bradford also on the sideline, Murray is definitely the Eagles main weapon, so he will have a lot of opportunities. It’s just whether he can capitalize against this tough Bucs rush defense.
So these are the 5 running backs I’ll be targeting this week. To be honest I’ll likely focus on my main plays even more than normal because I love the value in West and McFadden, and I don’t mind paying up for Freeman. As for the other two I’ll definitely have more Lamar Miller because he’s in a great spot, but I might pivot over to DeMarco Murray in some lineups.