Last week I was on the Seahawks vs Lions game being a shootout and that did not happen. The Lions dropped some balls early and then were never able to really get into rhythm on the road in Seattle, while the Seahawks mostly deployed their running game to beat the Lions. If you were on Aaron Rodgers paired with Randall Cobb last week then you had a low owned stack that ended up paying huge dividends.
This is another small four game slate, so once again I’m going to give you my favourite two stack plays of the week.
Also check out my running back targets for the week.
Matt Ryan ($7000) + Julio Jones ($8400)
This game in Atlanta is played inside a dome, which means there are no concerns about weather, which is huge for passing games at this time of the year. The over/under for this game is 51.5, which is second to only the Packers vs Cowboys game which has a total of 52 points.
I think this is a great spot to get Matt Ryan and I do expect him to be low owned because people are still afraid to play players against this Seahawks defense, likely even more so after how they handled Matt Stafford and the Lions last week. That said, the key difference between this week and last week is that the Falcons are at home and don’t have to worry about the 13th man in Seattle. Add in the fact that Lions receivers were dropping balls like hot potatoes last week and I still think you can attack this Seahawks defense that is much weaker without star safety Earl Thomas.
The Falcons have scored a ridiculous amount of points this year, going off for 540 points, which was by far the most points in the NFL (the Saints were second with 469). I expect the Falcons to have no trouble moving the ball against the Seahawks and that should result in several TD’s for Matt Ryan. The Seahawks are still solid against the run and that should result in the Falcons throwing quite a bit in this game, which is good for Matt Ryan.
I definitely want to pair Ryan with Julio Jones. Julio is likely the best receiver in the league and it looks like he is healthy and ready for this match up. Let’s not forget how Julio went off for 51 DK points at home to the Panthers in week 4. He has the ability to go off for huge games in big spots and I think he will be able to take advantage of this Earl Thomas-less defense. Julio put up 29.9 DK points in week 6 in Seattle and I expect 30+ this week in a big spot.
Dak Prescott ($6000) + Dez Bryant ($6600)
This is an absolute bargain for this pair against the Packers defense. Green Bay is ranked 26th on DK against opposing QB’s and they are 31st at WR. The Cowboys at home should have no trouble getting this combo working well against the Packers. Dak and Dez were finally starting to show some chemistry in weeks 15 and 16, with Dez catching 12 balls and 2 touchdowns over those two games.
The Packers are decent against opposing running backs (5th OPRK on DK), which should result in Dallas throwing the ball, especially if Rodgers stays hot and puts up points for the Packers. This game is the highest total on the slate and the savings you get taking this combo can allow you to have a better shot of paying up for other high priced players who have the potential for a big game.
In terms of ceiling I think Dez Bryant is the best value player on the slate and I will surely have plenty of Dak + Dez stacks this weekend.
Those are my two favourite stacks, but I also have no problem looking at either Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers at QB. I will be focusing on those two games due to the high totals, with Ryan and Prescott as my main targets.