Another week, and some more profit on my NFL spread betting picks. This past week I went 1-0-1, taking the Pats and Jets to both cover the spread as the road favourites. Tom Brady and company made it very easy for me in the Pats game, but the Jets game was quite the sweat and they ended up winning by 3 points, which is the spread I locked in my pick at early in the week. Lucky for me though, I added plenty more action when the Jets line came down to -1 or -2 late in the week, so even though I’m recording it as a push for my record here, it was a very solid week for me from a personal NFL betting standpoint.
With that win and that push my NFL spread betting record for the season now sits at 15-5-2. We have another slow week with 6 teams on byes, but once again I’ll try to find the value on the NFL week 9 slate.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
- Pittsburgh +3
- Baltimore -3
Big Ben could be back for this game, but even if he’s not I expect the Steelers to beat Baltimore this week. It’s obviously beneficial for the Steelers if Roethlisberger is back under center, but Landry Jones is a very solid backup and I’m confident even if he plays the Steelers should be able to move the ball in Baltimore. The only game Jones has played so far was hosting the Pats and the way Tom Brady and company are playing you can’t read too much into that loss.
The Ravens, on the other hand, have lost 4 straight after a very lucky 3 game winning streak to start the season. They’re having a lot of trouble moving the ball with Steve Smith Sr. out with an ankle injury, while Terrence West, Mike Wallace and Kamar Aiken are simply not good enough weapons on this offense. I think the Steelers defense should have a very solid game against this weak Ravens offense in week 9.
The Ravens are also ranked 24th according to FootballOutsiders.com against WR1’s, so this could be a huge spot for Antonio Brown this week. Le’Veon Bell is another guy who could have a monster game because the Ravens are also 24th against receiving backs, while being solid against RB’s on the ground.
All signs point to a Steelers win here, so I’ll gladly take the points.
Play: Steelers +3
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
- New Orleans -3.5
- San Francisco +3.5
It seems like everyone thinks of the Saints as a team that can only perform at home in the Superdome, but they’ve had some very solid road games this year. They’re 1-2 on the road, with a big win in San Diego, as well as tight losses to a couple solid teams in the Giants and the Chiefs. If this offense can get going in San Francisco, then there is no way that the 49ers will be able to keep this game close.
San Francisco has lost 6 straight games, since their very strange 28-0 win over the Rams in week 1. In that span of 6 games the closest they’ve kept a game was 7 points in a loss at home to the Cowboys in week 4. The average margin for their losses has been 17 points, while the average amount of points they’ve given up in those games is a ridiculous 36.5. A big reason for these big losses is the fact that Chip Kelly has his team play at one of the fastest paces in the NFL. This fast pace results in the offense getting off the field quicker and giving his opponents more opportunities against a tired defense.
The Saints will know how big this game is if they want to stay in the playoff hunt down the stretch and I expect Drew Brees and company to absolutely pick apart this defense in San Francisco.
Play: Saints -3.5