After going .500 in week 6, I got back to my winning ways with a perfect 2-0 week against the spread in week 7. The Jets were able to overcome some adversity at the QB position to defeat the Ravens at home and in my favourite play of the week the Bucs absolutely smashed the -2 spread beating the 49ers 34-17.
With those wins my season record for NFL spread picks is now a very solid 14-5-1. It’s a somewhat quiet week in the NFL, with 6 teams on bye, but I’ve found some good value plays that should add to our profits.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
- New England -7
- Buffalo +7
This is a revenge spot for Bill Belichick and the Pats. The Bills are the only team with a win against the Patriots this year, embarrassing the Pats 16-0 at Gillette Stadium in week 4. Of course, the Pats didn’t have Tom Brady at that point, but I’m more worried about Bill Belichick taking that loss to Rex Ryan personally.
Belichick will have a perfect game plan in place for this game and with no Shady McCoy for this game (it looks like he will miss this week), the biggest weapon for the Bills is already on the sidelines. He picked up 108 all purpose yards and the only TD of the game against the Pats earlier in the season, which will be sorely missed. Robert Woods is back to practice, but I just don’t think the Bills have the weapons to score against a very solid Patriots defense that will be out for blood.
I also, don’t expect the Pats to have the same difficulty scoring this time around. Let’s not forget that it was Jacoby Brissett under centre for the Pats in that 16-0 loss to the Bills, so I don’t forsee the same trouble moving the football for Brady this time around. He also has a healthy Gronkowski to work with now and we know how much respect Rex Ryan gives to Gronk. I think the Pats win this game easily and the fact that there is a revenge narrative makes me think they will cover the spread against a team they’ve often played close games with in the past.
Play: Patriots -7
New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns
- New York -3
- Cleveland +3
I took the Jets last week and they came through for me at home against the Ravens. It was a strange game, with Ryan Fitzpatrick having to come in and lead the team to victory after Geno Smith left the game with a torn ACL. Fitzpatrick seemed to be fired up at the post game press conference, sounding off about how he should start every game. It’s great to have that self belief, but after Fitzpatrick has been picked off 11 times this season it’s no wonder the Jets decided to start Geno. That said, I think this new fired up version of Fitzpatrick might be exactly what the doctor ordered for the Jets, because I think he’s a much better QB than he’s been playing like so far this season.
Fitpatrick gets a great game to try to turn his season around this week in Cleveland. The Browns currently sit third worst in the league with 29.6 points against in the league per game. I would actually argue that the Browns have a worse defense than either of the teams below them in this stat category as well because the Saints play indoors and seem to always be in shootouts, while the 49ers play a very fast paced game that increases the number of points scored against. Needless to say this is an awesome spot for the Jets offense and I expect Fitpatrick to take full advantage.
On the other side of the ball, I still think this Jets defense is very good. It’s tough when your offense has turned the ball over a league leading 17 times (which often leads to great field position) to look like a good D. If Fitzpatrick and company can keep the ball on offense, I expect the Jets D to look very good, even if it is Josh McCown back throwing the ball this week.
The Jets have the ability be a very good team. That’s simply not the case for the Browns and I think we will see the difference between these squads this week.
Play: Jets -3