I kept it to just two spread picks last week and it worked out for me with both of my picks hitting for a 2-0 week. The Cardinals did what they needed to without Carson Palmer on Thursday to easily cover the 4 point spread and then Kirk Cousins and company straight up won their game in Baltimore as 3.5 point underdogs.
My season record for NFL spread picks is now 11-4. I’ll hopefully be able to find a few more great value plays this week to continue to add units to my bankroll (and hopefully yours too).
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
- Denver -3.5
- San Diego +3.5
This game screams bounce back for the Denver Broncos defense. They had their first somewhat sub par game of the season last week in the loss to the Falcons and a lot of the damage was done by the opposing running backs with Devonta Freeman scoring a touchdown and rushing for 88 yards and adding 3 catches for 35 yards through the air. Tevin Coleman was also in on the act rushing for 31 yards on 6 catches and adding 132 yards through the air on 4 catches that included 1 touchdown. It’s become very apparent that to attack the Denver defense you can do so through the air to running backs. Unfortunately for the Chargers with Danny Woodhead injured that leaves Melvin Gordon as the feature back and I just don’t see him causing the Broncos too many problems.
On the other side of the ball it’s expected that Trevor Siemian will be back at QB for the Broncos and if he can pick up where he left off the Broncos should have no trouble scoring against the Chargers. San Diego gives up a lot of yards to top wide receivers and I expect Emmanuel Sanders to have a big Thursday night game in San Diego.
If you can buy half a point here to get down to odds of -3 I’d advise it, but I’m still comfortable taking the Broncos here -3.5.
Play: Broncos -3.5
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans
- Indianapolis +3
- Houston -3
The Colts have one of the worst defenses in the league, even with Vontae Davis back in the lineup. Last week they picked up the win, but they were still destroyed on defense with Brian Hoyer throwing for 397 yards and Jordan Howard adding 118 rushing yards. They couldn’t stop Cam Meredith who picked up 130 yards and a TD on 9 catches, while Alshon Jeffery also added 77 yards.
I see a similar issue for the Colts this week with DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Lamar Miller likely licking their lips in anticipation of this matchup. The Texans are coming off a tough loss to the Vikings where they were thoroughly outplayed losing 31-13, but this 3-2 team is still a very solid team in my eyes. Their other loss came against the Patriots, who have shown the ability to shut teams down this year.
I really like the Texans in this spot. I don’t think they’ll have any trouble moving the ball against this Colts defense and Houston has shown they are very good against high end receivers this year, so I expect them to be able to slow down TY Hilton. The area they’ve been the least effective has been against running backs through the air and I don’t expect Frank Gore to be the one to put up points through the air for the Colts this week.
This is a great match up for Houston all the way around.
Play: Texans -3
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
- Kansas City +1.5
- Oakland -1.5
The Chiefs are coming off a bye week and I expect them to have their offense clicking in this game against the Raiders. Oakland has given up 137 points through 5 games and although they’re 4-1 on the season their points differential is only +5. They have overachieved to this point winning close games against weak teams including the Saints, Titans, Ravens and Chargers. The Chiefs will be arguably the toughest team they have faced this year, along with their loss at home to Atlanta, and I think they will be in for a dose of reality.
Oakland has shown they are susceptible to opposing running backs through the air and the fact that Spencer Ware has played very well, along with Jamaal Charles returning from injury should allow the Chiefs to target this part of their defense. I also expect both Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce to have big games this week, with Alex Smith having the extra week of practice to get on the same page as his top receivers and ensure they are able to pick apart this Oakland defense.
I expect a Chiefs win here, but I’ll take the 1.5 points because Oakland has shown a propensity for winning one point games.
Play: Chiefs +1.5