It was a rough week 4 for my NFL spread betting picks. The Colts were not able to save me like the Cowboys did last week, and I ended Sunday having gone 0-3 against the spread on my plays from last week. The Dolphins offense looked absolutely horrific in their loss to the Saints in London, while the Ravens D wasn’t able to shut down the Steelers like I expected, while failing to get their own offense going at all. Finally, the Colts were absolutely blown out by a Seahawks offense that finally seems to be clicking. That 0-3 week brings my season record for my NFL spread picks to 3-7, so feel free to fade me this week if you think that’s +EV.
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Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Buffalo +3
- Cincinnati -3
The Bills are 3-1 and the fan base is excited about this start and the possibility that Brady and the Pats won’t be able to make up for the teams leaky defense this year. But not so fast. The Bills record is good yes, and their last two wins over the Broncos and Falcons came over a couple of solid teams, but I’m still not sold on this team moving forward. It could be argued that the team won last week based on a few very big plays even though they were likely outplayed over the course of the game. The same could even be said about the win over Denver.
The Bengals finally got their offense going against the Packers in week 3, in a game they really should have won, and it continued to fire last week with a 31-7 win in Cleveland. The Bengals defense has looked very good this year and I expect them to get solid pressure on Tyrod Taylor this week and force some mistakes from the QB. On the offense side, I think Dalton and company will be able to put up points at home against this Bills defense. If Dalton can take care of the ball and not give up any big plays back the other way then I expect the Bengals to be able to outclass the Bills in this one and take down the win by more than a field goal.
Play: Bengals -3
Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions
- Carolina +3
- Detroit -3
The Panthers earned a big win over the Pats at Foxborough this past week, and now they have received the rub from that big win by the oddsmakers. Let’s not forget though that this Patriots defense has been awful for the entire season and the Panthers defense has given up 30+ points in each of the past two weeks. Yes, those last two weeks were against top offenses and the Panthers kept their opponents to 3 points in each of the first two weeks, but the way the Lions are playing to start the season, I put their offense right up there with the Saints and Pats.
Stafford and the Lions could easily be 4-0 to this point in the season if that Tate TD in the final seconds against the Falcons had counted. Stafford and company have really learned how to win over the past couple seasons and with a full complement of weapons at his disposal I see no reason why the Lions won’t be able to put up 20+ points against the Panthers at Ford Field.
On the flip side, I don’t expect the Panthers to be able to put up points and keep pace. Sure, the offense looked decent against the Pats this past week, but the team only put up 13 points against the lowly Saints defense at home in Carolina in week 3, and Cam Newton is definitely a little banged up. I also think Greg Olsen would have been the Panthers best weapon against this Lions defense and he’s on the IR. Look for the Lions to get the win in this one by a score of something like 24-10.
Play: Lions -3
I’m going to stick with the two plays this week. If I have another poor showing this week I may begin adding my picks later in the week when I have more information.