The Cowboys saved me last night with a big win to salvage a 1-1 record against the spread from week 3. The Dolphins had a very poor showing against the Jets in what I should have probably realized was a let down spot after a big week 1 win.
My record is now 3-4 against the spread on the season for the NFL and I’m really trying to get my legs under me as we move into the meat of the season. We’re to the point where we really know what teams are at this point, so hopefully that makes handicapping the games easier moving forward.
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
- New Orleans -3
- Miami +3
Like I said above, looking back I should have realized that the Dolphins heading to New York to play the lowly Jets was a let down spot in week 3, after the emotional high of winning their week 2 game following the hurricane causing the postponement of their week 1 game. I still do think that this Dolphins team is better than they showed last week and I think this offense will have a lot more success against this Saints secondary.
Look for the Dolphins to succeed in establishing the run early on against this Saints team that has given up over 100 rushing yards in each of their first three games of the season. Jay Ajayi could have a field day in London.
Once the Dolphins establish the run this will also open up their passing offense and I expect Jarvis Landry to have a big game similar to how slot receiver Adam Thielen shredded the Saints, along with Diggs in week 1.
This game is in London, and the fact that the Dolphins played a game in London in both 2014 and 2015 should help the team in understanding what goes into playing at Wembley. The Saints haven’t played in London since 2008, and we saw what having familiarity with the International Series has with the Jags dominant performance over the Ravens last week in London.
This should be an exciting game, but I expect Miami to get the job done. I will also have money line bets on the Dolphins in this spot.
Play: Dolphins +3
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
- Pittsburgh -3
- Baltimore +3
Continuing with the Wembley Stadium theme from the pick above, I do not think that the Ravens are anywhere near as bad as they looked losing to the Jags 44-7 in London last week. The first trip to London for a game can often turn out poorly for teams and this was obviously the case for the Ravens against a Jacksonville team that is now used to a yearly trip to London.
I think this is a bounce back spot for the Ravens against a Steelers team that continues to struggle offensively on the road. If you accept last weeks game as an outlier, this Baltimore defense only allowed 10 points total in the first two weeks of the year. Le’Veon Bell has yet to really play up to the level he showed last season and I don’t expect this to be the spot Ben Roethlisberger finally has a good game on the road.
Baltimore always plays the Steelers tough at home, winning last years game 21-14. Another interesting tidbit is that the team that lost to the Jags in London the last two years, won their next game in the States.
I like Baltimore in this game and I’ll also be taking the money line in this spot, just like above.
Play: Ravens +3
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks
- Indianapolis +13
- Seattle -13
The Seahawks offense finally came to life in Tennessee last week, but that was when the game was already out of reach. In their first two games the team only scored 1 touchdown and those games were against a couple of teams not exactly known for shutting down their opposition in the Packers and 49ers. What I’m saying is I’m not convinced that this Seahawks offense is truly clicking as much as it may have seemed during the fourth quarter of the Titans game. Add in the fact that Doug Baldwin is dealing with a groin injury that he tweaked last week and the teams best weapons (along with Jimmy Graham) likely won’t be at 100% if they play.
On the other side of the ball, Jacoby Brissett played extremely well to get the win over Cleveland last week. Brissett showed some chemistry with TY Hilton, and although it will be a much tougher match up win Seattle this Sunday Night, just the fact that this offense showed a bit of life give me confidence that they will at least be able to put a few points on the board in Seattle.
Overall, I just think this spread is too wide. I’m not convinced the Seahawks will put up 25+ points, which is what I think they will need to cover. If possible, I would buy the point though and take the Colts +14 if you can.
Play: Colts +13