Last week was a strange one with my NFL picks. The Lions, who I was on big time at +5.5, destroyed the Saints to absolutely crush the spread, but my Dolphins +3 pick was about as far off as could be with Miami falling to the Ravens by a score of 38-6.
That 1-1 week brings my season long record for NFL spreads to 21-10-2. It’s still a very strong season to this point, but I would really like to have another perfect week on this massive week 14 slate.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans +2.5
- Tampa Bay -2.5
The Saints offense struggled at home against the Lions this past Sunday, which is not something you come to expect from a Drew Brees offense at the Superdome. The Lions were able to secure 3 interceptions from Brees, which really set the tone for the game. This week the Saints are playing on the road against a Bucs defense that has been playing extremely well of late. The Bucs are on a four game winning streak and they have only allowed an average of 300 total yards through those games and that includes shutting down the Seahawks a couple weeks back.
With Doug Martin back this offense is also must more well rounded and it’s not purely Winston to Mike Evans. I expect the Bucs to come at the Saints D with a lot of variety this week and they should be able to put up offensive points at home. If the defense can continue to shut down opposing teams this game could get away from the Saints quickly.
Play: Bucs -2.5
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
- Dallas -3.5
- New York +3.5
Divisional games between the Cowboys and Giants are always very close. Everyone is extremely high on the Cowboys at this point in time, which is partly why I think this is the perfect time of the season to bet against them. The Giants were on a 6 game winning streak before losing 24-14 in Pittsburgh this past week. They have been playing some very solid all around football and Eli has been able to manage games very well to put the Giants in a position to win.
I expect the Giants to look to beat the Cowboys through the air in this one, and I expect them to at least be able to slow up Ezekiel Elliott somewhat at home. The Cowboys secondary is not nearly as good as their defensive line and being a Monday Night game I expect us to see some Odell Beckham Jr. heroics in this one.
Expect this game to be tight throughout, with the Giants having just as good a chance to pull off the win in the fourth quarter as the Cowboys. Take the points.
Play: Giants +3.5