Last week was my first losing week of the season. I had the Bengals +4.5 and they ended up losing by 5 points, and then the Pats only beat the Jets by 5 points, while I had them covering the 7.5 point spread. Making it to week 12 before suffering a below .500 week is something I can look at as a positive, but I’m eager to get back in the win column with my NFL picks this week.
My season record for my NFL spread picks now sits at 20-9-2.
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Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
- Detroit +5.5
- New Orleans -5.5
The Lions defense has really come a long way this year and I think they will at least be able to slow down the high powered Drew Brees offense of the Saints at the Superdome this weekend. In their last four games the Lions D has only given up an average of 299 total yards per game, and they’ve also shown an ability to get turnovers with 4 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery in that span (and several overturned interceptions in last weeks game against the Vikings).
On offense, this is the perfect game for Stafford to get back to his gun slinging ways. Stafford has been more of a game manager of late, who then puts together some huge drives late to win games. He hasn’t thrown over 300 yards since week 3 against the Packers, with his only other big week against the Colts in week 1. Those were both games on the road where the Lions needed him to score in bunches. The Saints offense will only be slowed, not stopped, in this game, which means Stafford will need a big game. I expect Stafford to have another massive game with each of his top weapons in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr., Anquan Boldin and Theo Riddick healthy. Stafford will find holes in this Saints defense inside the dome this week and put up some big numbers on the way to a Lions win.
Play: Lions +5.5
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
- Miami +3
- Baltimore -3
The Dolphins have quietly won 7 games in a row. A big reason for this has been the emergence of Jay Ajayi, who has become the Dolphins featured back and allowed the team to change from a pass heavy attack to really establishing a ground game.
You’ll notice that I’ve bet against the Ravens quite a bit this year and I’m going to continue this week. The Ravens are an overrated team. They just squeaked out a 5 point win over an AJ Green-less Bengals team last year and their level of competition has really been lacking this season.
Play: Dolphins +3