I continued my torrid wins rate through week 11 going 3-0 last week with my spread picks thanks to the Raiders winning by a touchdown last night. Last week I left for vacation Tuesday evening, which forced me to get my picks up early in the week. After a perfect week I figured why mess with a winning formula, so here I am with my NFL picks once again on a Tuesday.
Last weeks 3-0 record has bumped my NFL spread betting record for the season up to 20-7-2.
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Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati +4.5
- Baltimore -4.5
The Bengals lost AJ Green last week, likely for the rest of the season. That’s a massive loss to this offense because Green could make big plays and you could even argue that he had been the best wide receiver in the league this season. That said, I think this Bengals team is far better than their 3-6-1 record and I think the Ravens are far worse than 5-5.
The Bengals are coming off two very close losses to solid teams in the Giants and Bills, while picking up that tie against the Redskins in London 3 weeks ago. The Bengals have had a very tough schedule with each of their 6 losses on the season coming against teams teams with .500 records or better currently. Yes, their wins have been against teams with below .500 records, but even though the Ravens are 5-5 I see them as a team that is far below average in this league.
With AJ Green out, Tyler Boyd is going to have to become a much bigger part of this passing offense, and I think he is a very capable wide receiver. I also expect Tyler Eifert to become much more involved in the passing game and I consider him one of the best tight ends in the league, so I think he is up to this challenge.
I just don’t see where the Ravens are going to rack up points. The Bengals have a great pass defense and the Ravens have big issues running the ball. This will likely be a low scoring game, but I would lean towards the Bengals to win it, so I’ll easily take the 4.5 points and go with Cincy.
Play: Bengals +4.5
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
- New England -7.5
- New York +7.5
Brady got back to throwing TD’s last week with 4 touchdown passes in San Francisco. The Pats only won the game 30-17, but you do have to give some credit to Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense that seems to be improving with each game Kaep plays under centre. I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the Patriots won’t beat the Jets by a significant margin. Yes, Gronk and Hogan are questionable to play this week, but the Pats have so many weapons with Edelman, Amendola, Bennett and the two passing backs in White and Lewis that moving the ball will not be a problem for New England.
Add in the fact that the turnover machine Ryan Fitzpatrick is back at QB for the Jets after missing week 10 (following 4 turnovers in week 9) and the Pats will have no trouble scoring. I think New England will end this game with 30+ points, which will easily be enough to cover this spread.
Play: Patriots -7.5
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