This is the sixth installment of our World Cup 2018 group winners betting predictions article series. You can check out all of the previous articles through the links at the bottom of this page.
I will be looking at the Group F winner odds below and giving my favourite play based on the betting odds. I have also added one other bet I like from this group. I’m using the best odds available at any of our top rated betting sites for the odds below. The odds can change so be sure to check and compare them out for yourself.
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Group F Winner Odds
- Germany 1.35
- Mexico 6.25
- Sweden 8.50
- South Korea 21.00
If you have read my previous World Cup Group predictions articles you will have noticed a theme. I don’t like betting on the overwhelming favourite to win the group. I just don’t generally think there is value in teams to win groups at under odds of 1.50. All it takes is one bad goal against to keep a team like Germany out of the top spot, especially in a group that includes two other very solid teams in Mexico and Sweden.
I think it’s possible for any three of those nations to finish atop group F. That said, I do think it would take a minor miracle to keep Germany from advancing out of this game, but that would likely require two bad games from the Germans, while one bad game against either Sweden or Mexico, followed by that same team defeating the other and we have a group winner other than Germany.
In Group F my betting play is Sweden at odds of 8.50. The Swedes finished second to France is the toughest UEFA World Cup qualifying group, which included the Dutch. They then were able to hold on for a 1-0 win on aggregate against the heavyweight Italian squad in the second round of qualifying. The Swedes only allowed 9 goals against in 12 qualifying matches, which included 6 matches against perennial contenders France, Holland and Italy. This team plays terrific defensive soccer and they still have the ability to put the ball in the back of the net, as was shown by them scoring 26 goals in 10 group qualifying matches, which was ahead of both France and the Netherlands.
I could see Sweden pulling out a 1-0 win against Germany, and also scoring enough goals against South Korea to potentially win any tie breakers that may occur for top spot. At these odds Sweden is the best bet on the board without a doubt.
Play: Sweden 8.50
Other Group F Bets
I’m pretty high on both Sweden and Mexico, giving them each a legitimate chance of winning the group. I do not feel the same way about South Korea. I think there is a very good chance that South Korea not only finishes at the bottom of the group, but fails to earn a point in this group that includes some very solid nations.
South Korea finished a distant second to Iran in their AFC World Cup qualifying group, posting only a 4-3-3 record with a +1 goal differential in a group that included Syria, Uzbekistan, China PR and Qatar. They won all of their home games outside of a draw with Iran, but fell to Iran, China PR, and Qatar on the road. If this team is losing to nations as weak as China and Qatar, I don’t give them much of a chance to compete with Germany, Sweden and Mexico.
I think there is much more than a 50% chance that South Korea finishes fourth in the group.