WGC Mexico City – 6 Picks for Outright Winner

The top players in the world are all back on the golf course this week for the World Golf Championship event in Mexico City.  I’ve spent a good chunk of my day researching my betting picks for this event and it’s been very difficult because this will be the first time this event is held at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City.

I did quite a bit of research on the course and I found a few stat categories that I think will play a big role in the winner of this tournament.  First of all, the course is going to play very short after altitude adjustment, so although there are holes where a big drive could help, I will be focusing more on the approach shot for this tournament.  The entire course is lined with trees, which means players will need to stay in the fairway and avoid any misses that could result in trouble along either edge of the holes.

For approach shots I’m targeting 150-175 yard and 200-225 yard approach shots because I think these will be the lengths of several approaches into the greens.  I’m also waiting greens in regulation heavily because if you can hit the green you will have a good chance at birdie on many of these holes.  I also expect putting to play a big role in the winner this week and the greens will be poa annua grass this week, which is a change from bermuda grass at the Honda Classic a week ago.  Lastly, I also expect wind to play a factor at this altitude, so I will be looking for players who have shown they can perform well in the wind.  I’ve been digging through fantasygolfmetrics.com for most of these statistics.

Alright, let’s get into my 6 outright winner picks for this week.  I’ll be using the best odds available for each golfer from any of our recommended betting sites for Canadians.

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Jordan Spieth 8/1 @ SportsInteraction.com

Spieth is ready to start heating up for the Masters.  He was able to take down the Pebble Beach Pro-Am three weeks back and has been playing some great golf with 6/6 cuts made this seaons and results of T22, 1st, T9, 3rd, T3 and T6.

Spieth is ranked #1 in greens in regulation this season on the PGA tour, as well as stokes gained approach, which will be very important this week.  He is a slightly worse putter on poa greens, but even though it’s his worse surface he is still one of the best in field once he gets his ball on the green.  I’m confident Spieth will be in the mix come Sunday and then it will be up to his putter as to whether or not he wins the tournament.

Henrik Stenson 14/1 @ Bet365.com

Stenson should be able to use his 3-wood off the tee as much as he likes around this golf course.  He’s ranked #5 in the field over the past couple years in approaches from 200-225 yards, which is the tops among the top rated players in the field.  He also checks my box for approaches from 150-175 gaining 0.135 shots on the field with irons from that distance and he is ranked #5 on the European Tour in greens in regulation this season.  The only stats box he doesn’t check is the fact he is worse on POA greens, but he is still an average putter who can get hot, which is what we will need at this event.

Stenson hasn’t played since the beginning of February, but he placed 2nd in his last outing and has a 2nd, T8 and 2nd so far this season.  Stenson’s game fits this course and I think he’s a strong bet at these odds.

Adam Scott 23/1 @ SportsInteraction.com

I was surprised to see Scott’s odds this high.  Yes, he didn’t win last week after heading into the tourney as the favourite, but he still finished a very respectable T14 and was very consistent throughout.  Scott is ranked 7th on the PGA Tour in approaches from 200-225 yards and is ranked 4th on the PGA over the past couple seasons in GIR% in relatively windy conditions.  Add in the fact that he putts slightly better on Poa greens and I think he makes for a good bet.  His form is good, he won the same tournament (albeit at a different course) last year and if he can drain some putts he will be in contention throughout.

Tyrrell Hatton 47/1 @ SportsInteraction.com

Hatton showed PGA fans just how good he is last week finishing 4th at the Honda Classic after finding himself in the final pairing with Rickie Fowler heading into Sunday.  Hatton is playing very well and has the perfect game for this course.  He has extremely good putting with 1.884 SGP on Poa Annua grass, which could be a huge difference maker in this tournament.  He’s also ranked #1 over the past 3 years on approaches from 200-225 yards having actually gone under par by -0.14 on holes that require that approach distance.  He’s also 3rd on approaches from 150-175 yards.  Hatton has now come T4, T3 and T13 in his last four starts and looks ready to break out with a big win.  He may be my favourite play this week.

Rafa Cabrera-Bello 84/1 @ SportsInteraction.com

Cabrera-Bello has been playing some great golf having made 6/6 cuts this season and finishing T37, T34, T11, T6, T19 and 2nd over that span.  He is ranked #1 this season on approaches from 200-225 yards and 5th in greens in regulation.  Add in the fact that he has a great track record in windy conditions and is a solid putter, especially on poa annua greens and I think we have a great value play at 84/1.   I would suggest taking the each way bet option with Cabrera-Bello because I think there is a good chance he finishes in the top 5 even though it may be a tall task for him to win the tourney outright.

Bernd Wiesberger 100/1 @ Bodog.eu

Wiesberger is my favourite long shot play this week.  He ranks 11th from both 150-175 yards and 200-225 yards over the past couple seasons and is ranked 8th on the European Tour in birdie or better percentage this season.  He is in good form heading into the tournament having finished 3rd at the Maybank Championship a couple weeks back in Europe and now has 3, T32, T37, T4 as his recent form over the first couple months of the season.

Bernd is slightly better on poa greens than bermuda, but he’s still a poor putter overall, so we will need his putter to get hot if he is going to win this week in Mexico City.

There you have my 6 pack of picks for the WGC – Mexico Championship this week.  I was able to hit on Rickie Fowler last week, which spurred me to write this piece this week.  I’m hoping to make this a weekly article moving forward.

I’m hoping to also be adding a DraftKings targets post for this event tomorrow, so keep your eyes open for that.

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