It’s a quick turn around for the UFC after last weekends Sunday card in Liverpool we now have just a short week before a Friday night Fight Night card in Utica, New York. The Liverpool card was a rough one considering I had a good size bet on Stephen Thompson and was very confident that he won after the fight (you can see why by the media scores at MMADecisions.com). Unfortunately the judges went with the home town boy and it turned into a losing night for me. I’m really eyeing one fight this week which should help me bounce back.
The card is on Friday night, not Saturday, and it gets underway with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm EST, moves to the Fight Network here in Canada at 8pm and then TSN 2 for the main card at 10pm EST.
I have just two plays for this card which you can check out below. I will be using the best odds available from any of our top rated betting sites.
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Jimmie Rivera vs Marlon Moraes
This is a tough fight to call. Both of these guys are very solid stand up fighters. I think Moraes has the more power in his punches and is the more dangerous guy in terms of finishing ability, but Jimmie Rivera is an absolute technician on the feet.
I think Rivera will get the better of the stand up exchanges and as long as he doesn’t get KO’d by Moraes I expect him to win a decision. Rivera also has some takedown ability that he can use to win rounds, so if there are some tight rounds I think Rivera has the ability to shoot for the rare takedown late in the round to secure the points.
I think the technical ability and fight IQ of Jimmie Rivera will squeak out a tight decision in this one.
Play: Rivera 1.91
Daniel Spitz vs Walt Harris
This is the fight I was eyeing since it was announced. I’ve been waiting for another chance to fade Daniel Spitz and this is a great spot for the fade in my opinion. Spitz KO’d Anthony Hamilton in just 24 seconds in his last fight, but I still do not believe he’s at the UFC level. In that fight he connected with a nice counter right as Hamilton tried to walk him down. Hamilton has a history of having a very weak chin and just the way it went down we really didn’t get to see if Spitz has actually made any improvements, so I am going to assume he hasn’t and he just caught a guy with a bad chin coming in too aggressive. This is heavyweight of course, so any clean punch can knock guys out, even from sloppy strikers like Spitz.
Harris is only 10-7 in his MMA career and he has some chin issues of his own, so it’s not a perfect match up by any means, but I think he is by far the more skilled and dangerous stand up fighter in this fight. He has two losses in a row on his record, but the recent DQ loss to Mark Godbeer was a fight where Harris was destroying Godbeer, accidentally hit him in the groin and then didn’t hear the ref tell him to stop, so he threw a follow up head kick which caused Godbeer unable to continue. In my eyes it was actually a win for Harris.
I did a lot of tape study on Spitz heading into his UFC career and the guy was very bad in his tape study. Yes, he was 5-0 coming into the UFC, but he was fighting guys who had losing records on the regional scene or guys who were way over the hill. In his final regional fight he finally fought a guy with a 7-6 record and on his record it says he won that fight by TKO/KO just 4 seconds in, but in reality his opponent had a freak injury on their first engagement.
Spitz is not a UFC level fighter and I expect Harris to absolutely crush him in this fight.
Play: Harris 1.33