UFC 245: Usman vs Covington Betting Picks

The UFC is headed to Las Vegas this Saturday for the final pay-per-view event of the year. The UFC is finishing off 2019 with a bang, with a stacked card that features 3 title fights and other big names for a must buy PPV portion of the card.

Usman vs Covington for the welterweight belt is the headliner, while Holloway vs Volkanovski for the featherweight belt and Nunes vs De Randamie at women’s bantamweight are the other title fights. Jose Aldo vs Marlon Moraes and Urijah Faber vs Petr Yan are the other fights on the main card.

I have 4 picks for the card below. I’m using the best odds available from any of our top rated betting sites for the picks.

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Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington

Usman and Covington have very similar styles, and they’ve actually beaten very similar opponents en route to this meeting in the title fight. Both guys are wrestling first grinders who like to bring their opponents into deep water and just keep coming forward. Both guys beat Demian Maia and Rafael dos Anjos to put themselves in title contention with Colby actually beating both guys first. Usman was rewarded with a shot against Lawler, while Colby had to beat up Lawler to set up this match.

Both of these guys are very similar, but I think the smart money has to be on Covington as the underdog. I think he has the better gas tank and I also believe he’s the better wrestler. Usman is the stronger athlete, so if he can use his strength he could get the upper hand on Colby, but I don’t think he really has the weapons to finish Covington, so this fight should come down to who is the better wrestler and who has the larger gas tank.

This fight should really be a pick’em at worst, so I’m happy to take the dog money on Colby Covington.

Play: Covington 2.50

Amanda Nunes vs Germaine De Randamie

Nunes beat Germaine De Randamie by knockout back in 2013 before Amanda was champion. Since this fight Nunes has grown tremendously as an all around MMA fighter, while I’m not convinced that GDR has improved as much.

On the feet this is a very closely matched fight with GDR an elite kickboxer. That said, I’d still give the edge to Nunes for her creative striking and defensive ability on the feet which she showed against Shevchenko in their tight fight in 2017. On the mat Nunes should have a big advantage and I expect her to look to get the fight there after a round or two on the feet.

Nunes has far more paths to victory than GDR in this fight, and she’s shown the ability to go the five round distance when needed, so I think she will have the correct game plan to keep her belt in this fight.

Play: Nunes 1.36

Petr Yan vs Urijah Faber

Faber returned and earned a surprise knockout over Ricky Simon back in July, but that’s as far as his latest run will get him. Petr Yan is on another level and he should have a big advantage against Faber on the feet. As long as Yan can avoid getting knocked out by Faber’s big overhand right he should be able to pick Faber apart and likely finish this fight.

Play: Yan 1.26 @ SportsInteraction.com

Chase Hooper vs Daniel Teymur

Hooper is a 20 year old fighter who earned a development contract after competing on Dana White’s Contender Series. He didn’t impress me in that fight and I think he has big holes in his game on the feet and in the strength department.

Teymur is a low level UFC fighter, but he is a high level muai thai fighter and I think he will be able to piece Hooper up on the feet en route to a knockout. Teymur does have a history of submitting to rear-naked chokes, so he will have to make sure Hooper, who is a high level jiu jitsu fighter, doesn’t take his back. That said, I think Teymur is strong enough on the feet that he should be able to dictate this fight and avoid a submission loss en route to victory.

Play: Teymur 1.91

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