Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Betting Pick

The over/under for Super Bowl 53 is set at 58, so oddsmakers are expecting a shootout. With the Patriots putting up 37+ points in each of their last 3 games, and the Rams having already scored enough to beat two top defenses in their first two playoff games, it’s not hard to believe this one will be a high scoring affair.

In this article I will give the odds for the over/under on Super Bowl 53 from and provide my pick along with the reasons behind my play.

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Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Odds and Pick

Here are the over/under odds for Super Bowl 53 from (from January 22nd):

The over/under is set at 58 points, which is higher than the ~56.5-57 point totals from last weeks Conference Championship games.

First, let’s take a look at the scores of both teams two playoff games:

  • Patriots 41 – Chargers 28 = 69 total points
  • Patriots 37 – Chiefs 31 = 68 total points
  • Rams 30 – Cowboys 22 = 52 total points
  • Rams 26 – Saints 23 – 49 total points

Just looking at these totals, you can see that the Patriots have played in higher scoring games than the Rams.

The Patriots offense is clicking right now, and even against a Chargers team that was a top 10 defense this year, the Pats put up 41 points, and probably even took their foot off the gas in that game. Against the Chiefs, the Pats looked amazing right out of the gate and if it wasn’t for Tom Brady throwing a pick just a few yards away from the Chiefs end zone they would have started that game with 2 straight TD’s as well. The game against the Chiefs took a while to get rolling offensively, with some big misplays keeping points off the board, really right up until the 4th quarter, but in the end that game still had 68 points scored. The Rams have an above average defense, but the Pats are going to get their points. I’m expecting the Pats to put up 30+ in this game, and there really aren’t many factors that will prevent them from finding the end zone plenty of times, considering the weather and wind will be a non-factor.

On paper it looks like the Rams offense has slowed down the stretch, but I’m not buying it. Yes, they were held to 6 points in Chicago in week 14, but the Bears are the top D in the league, and they still put up 30+ in their final two games of the season, as well as the Wild Card game against a top level Cowboys defense.

The Rams are a team that relies heavily on their running game to get their offense clicking. They faced two top 5 rushing defenses in their first two playoff games. They were able to find their groove on the ground against the Cowboys, but the Saints D largely stifled the Rams rushing attack. I’m confident that the Rams will be able to get their running game back rolling against the Patriots, and I expect Todd Gurley to have a bounce back game.

My pick….

The total is high at 58, but I think this game is going to be a shootout. This is an offense driven league nowadays, and I’m expecting even more flags for pass interference in the Super Bowl after the botched non-call in the Saints vs Rams game caused outrage across social media.

Tom Brady is going to get his points, and I think the Rams have the weapons both on the ground in Gurley and Anderson, and at receive with Woods and Cooks.

This is going to be a back and forth battle with neither team out of the game until the final whistle. The last two Super Bowls, both featuring the Patriots, have been shootouts, and I expect the same this year.

Play: Over 58 @

Check out my other Super Bowl articles in our football posts section.

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