It was yet another 1-1 week with my NFL picks for week 4. The Seahawks easily covered the 5 point spread against the Cardinals, but the Bengals were outclassed by the Steelers in Monday Night Football.
I’m now 3-5 after four week of the NFL season, going 1-1 for the past 3 weeks. I will be looking to get back to .500 here in week 4.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Carolina Panthers
- Jacksonville +3.5
- Carolina -3.5
The Jaguars and Panthers are two teams in similar situations. Both teams started the season 0-2 and both have had to make a QB switch to their rookie backups after injuries to the starters (Newton and Foles). Both teams have also won their last two games. The other interesting similarity is that neither rookie QB was highly touted coming out of college. Kyle Allen went undrafted in 2018, and Gardner Minshew was taken in the 6th round by the Jags this season.
All of that said, I just think the Panthers are a better team than the Jaguars. Carolina showed tremendous defensive ability in shutting down Deshaun Watson and the talented Texans offense last week. Going into Houston and keeping Watson to just 160 yards is very impressive. The Panthers are the best defense the Jags have faced this season, and I think they could cause big problems for Gardner Minshew, as long as they can also slow down Leonard Fournette.
If Kyle Allen can manage the game, I do think the Panthers will be able to get McCaffrey the ball against the Jaguars and allow him to make plays. Look for Minshew to have problem with the Panthers D and for Carolina to win this game by double digits.
Play: Panthers -3.5
Buffalo Bills @ Tennessee Titans
- Buffalo +3
- Tennessee -3
The Bills dropped their first game of the season last week, losing 16-10 at home vs the Patriots. The Bills were down 13-0 early, but after the first quarter the Bills D shut down the Pats and they were able to get within one possession by the third quarter. Even with the loss, I think there is a lot of positives to take away from the game for the Bills defense.
Buffalo held Brady to just 150 yards passing, 0 TD’s and 1 interception on the game. If they were able to do that to Brady, I think they will be able to make life very tough on Mariota this week.
The Titans are coming off a win over Atlanta, and everyone is high on them again like after their week 1 thumping of the Browns. After that win though, the Titans lost at home to the Colts and then looked poor in Jacksonville.
This should be a low scoring game and that will play right into the hands of the Bills on the road. This game should be a grind, but I think Buffalo has what it takes this year to come out on the winning end of games like this.
I’m happy to take the Bills +3, but if you can get them +3.5 I would jump at that line.
Play: Bills +3