I was able to put together yet another winning week against the spread in week 13, going 3-1. The Cardinals, Titans and 49ers each came through for me, and it was nice to finally win a tight spread bet with the Titans narrowly covering the -2.5 point spread with their 3 point win over the Jags. The only loss on the week was the Panthers not being able to cover the 7 point spread against the Saints. That really surprised me.
That winning week brings my NFL season record to 30-24-1 against the spread.
Now, on to week 14.
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals
- Minnesota +7.5
- Arizona -7.5
Yes, the Vikings had a very rough week 13, losing 38-7 to the Seahawks. They abandoned the run early and that did them no favours, with this game getting out of hand quickly. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense has been on a tear lately though, so I’m not reading too much into this game other than it being a stinker for the Vikings.
The Cardinals had their own bounce back game last week with a 27-3 win over the Rams, but that was expected with the Rams defense breaking down lately and the Rams offense never doing much.
I think we will see a bounce back game this week for the Vikings. They should have learned from their mistakes and hand the ball early and often to Adrian Peterson this week. The Cards defense is solid, but I think the Vikings can put up some points if they realize the weapon they have at running back.
The Vikings defense will have to play well to shut down the many weapons that the Cards have, but I think they can do this. The Vikings have allowed the second fewest points in the NFC this year for a reason (and the Seahawks took over the top spot thanks to their thrashing of the Vikings last week). I think this Vikings team will at least slow down the offense and that should be enough to give them a very good chance to beat this spread.
Play: Vikings +7.5
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
- Buffalo -1
- Philadelphia +1
The Eagles pulled off a minor miracle and beat the Patriots last week, but let’s not pretend this Pats team is at full strength. The surprising thing is that the Eagles are still in the thick of the playoff race, tied for first in the NFC East with their 5-7 record. Sam Bradford back at QB definitely helped them out against the Pats, but this Eagles secondary is still very bad and if Sammy Watkins can bring his A-game I think he should be able to get open for a couple long bombs once again this week.
The Bills at 6-6 are also in the thick of the playoff race in the AFC with a wild card spot still a very real possibility. This is a tough game to handicap because you never really know what you’re going to get out of either of these teams, but I like the Bills in this spot. They just have a far better defense, which should play a big factor in this game.
Play: Bills -1
Detroit Lions @ St. Louis Rams
- Detroit (1.91)
- St. Louis (1.91)
I’m surprised the Lions aren’t favourites in this game, but I understand that the loss to the Packers via a late hail mary in Thursday Night Football last week could definitely have lasting effects on this teams preparation and effort level. That said, the Lions have played very well of late winning three straight after their week 9 bye before that heart breaking loss to the Packers. If the Lions can find it in themselves to put the Packers loss behind them I think they should have no trouble with the Rams.
The Rams have lost 5 straight games and have only scored 54 points in this span. It’s been even less more recently with St. Louis only scoring 3 points last week and 7 the week before. Their defense, which was winning them games early in the year, also seems to have mailed it in, so the Lions will have every opportunity to win this game.
Play: Lions 1.91
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans +4
- Tampa Bay -4
The Saints were able to keep it close against the Panthers last week, which turned out to be my one loss in week 13. That said, I’m still ready to fade the Saints once again because their defense simply cannot stop anyone. Last week they still gave up 41 points to the Panthers, which brings their points allowed up to a ridiculous 380 points to this point in the season. To put that in perspective the Browns have given up the second most points and they are only sitting at 347 points allowed.
The Panthers were a tough opponent for the Saints last week and they were able to find a way to score 38 points, but that was at home. This game is on the road, where the Saints are 1-5 this season (3-3 at home). The Saints offense has struggled on the road in their recent games with the Saints putting up just 6 points in Houston 2 weeks ago and only 14 points in Washington before the bye. I think the points will be hard to come back in Tampa Bay and I’m very confident that they won’t be hard to come by for the Bucs offense.
Play: Buccaneers -4