I hope everyone followed my 3 American Thanksgiving Day picks yesterday because I easily went 3 for 3 with every game going pretty much exactly how I expected. The Lions and Panthers easily covered the spread, while the Bears not only beat the 9.5 point spread, but they actually beat the Packers, which was not expected. That 3-0 day has brought my season record to 25-21-1 against the spread in the NFL. I’m on a hot streak, so I’d like to keep that rolling this weekend.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
- Buffalo +6
- Kansas City -6
The Chiefs have now won four in a row, but the defense getting turnovers has played a huge role in these wins. If Tyrod Taylor plays I don’t see the Bills turning the ball over as much as the Chiefs may like. Taylor has only thrown 4 picks this year and he’s been mostly making high percentage plays as his 67.9% completion percentage shows. Add in the fact that Charcandrick West may not play due to a hamstring injury an I’m not sure where the Chiefs will find much offense against this Bills team.
I like Buffalo to bounce back this week after a tough loss to the Pats. I’ll take the points.
Play: Bills +6
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons
- Minnesota +1
- Atlanta -1
Devonta Freeman has been ruled out for the Falcons this week and that likely leaves Tevin Coleman as the lead back for the Falcons. It may come as a surprise with Julio putting up huge numbers each week that the Falcons are actually very run heavy so losing Freeman is a big blow to this offense. Coleman has not looked good when he’s had opportunities this year and I don’t expect the Falcons to be able to score a ton against this Vikings defense. Minnesota just continues to quietly win games and I think this will be yet another W for the Vikings.
Play: Vikings +1
San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- San Diego +4.5
- Jacksonville -4.5
The Chargers defense is horrible and now the offense is basically weapon-less with Keenan Allen on the mend for the entire year. The Jags have a ton of weapons up front and I think people overlook running back TJ Yeldon as a legitimate high end running back in the league. Seven of the nine games the Jags have played this season have been against 11th or better ranked defenses against the run, so I’m expecting we see the Jags run the ball more than people have come to expect this week based on the match up. I like the Jags to easily cover here because I think they can gain yards at will against this defense.
Play: Jaguars -4.5
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
- Arizona -10.5
- San Francisco +10.5
It’s no secret that the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the league this year, while the 49ers are struggling mightily. Blaine Gabbert will definitely have his hands full this week against a very strong Cardinals defense and I don’t think the 49ers will be able to put up a ton of points on offense, but to cover this spread they may not have to. This is an absolute massive spread for a road team in a divisional game. I’m not convinced that the Cards will be able to put up points at will against this 49ers defense that will want to have a big game at home against a divisional rival. When you can lose by a touchdown plus a field goal and still beat the spread at home it’s hard to pass that up for me.
Play: 49ers +10.5