2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Picks and Morning Line Odds

The morning line odds and post positions have been released for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. It’s time to really dive into the research and figure out which bet(s) I like for Saturday.

The first thing you notice when looking at the odds is that Essential Quality is a decent sized favourite at odds of 2-1 and there are only 7 horses in the field of 20 that have odds of 15-1 or shorter. I would be very surprised of one of those 7 horses did not win this years Kentucky Derby.

That said, the Derby is so exciting and fun to handicap because there isn’t a huge amount of information on the three-year-old horses. They have often only ran a few races each, and the Kentucky Derby will be the first time most horses in the field have competed with each other.

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2021 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds

Below are the official morning line odds (and post positions) for the 2021 Kentucky Derby, set for the 47th straight year by Mike Battaglia.

The morning line is the odds that each horse will begin the day at when betting opens on Saturday.  The odds will change throughout the day depending on the amount of money that is wagered on each horse.  The amount of money bet on each horse relative to the entire amount bet on the race winner will determine each horses final odds.  Check out our parimutuel betting system page for a further breakdown of this form of betting, which is the norm in horse racing.

  1. Known Agenda 6-1
  2. Like the King 50-1
  3. Brooklyn Strong 50-1
  4. Keepmeinmind 50-1
  5. Sainthood 50-1
  6. O Besos 20-1
  7. Mandaloun 15-1
  8. Medina Spirit 15-1
  9. Hot Rod Charlie 8-1
  10. Midnight Bourbon 20-1
  11. Dynamic One 20-1
  12. Helium 50-1
  13. Hidden Stash 50-1
  14. Essential Quality 2-1
  15. Rock Your World 5-1
  16. King Fury 20-1
  17. Highly Motivated 10-1
  18. Super Stock 30-1
  19. Soup and Sandwich 30-1
  20. Bourbonic 30-1

There are 20 horses taking part in the race and there are seven horses who I feel are legitimate competitors, with morning line odds of 15-1 or better. Essential Quality and Rock Your World, the two favourites, will start beside each other out in posts 14 and 15.

The Kentucky Derby futures odds, which are fixed odds, are already quite a bit different than these morning line odds, so I would expect to see these odds change significantly on race day with Essential Quality’s odds lengthening to closer to 3-1 by the start of the race on Saturday.

My Kentucky Derby Pick

I like the odds for Medina Spirit at 15-1. This is Bob Baffert’s only horse in the Kentucky Derby, and his success as a trainer at the Derby speaks for itself. Baffert’s horses have won 6 Kentucky Derby’s including winning 3 of the last 6 years (2015, 2018, 2020). You have to think that Baffert will have his lone entry ready to run on Saturday.

Medina Spirit has won two races and finished 2nd three times in his 5 career races. Two of those second place finishes were to Life Is Good, who would have likely entered the Derby as the favorite had he not suffered an injury back in March. The other second place finish for Medina Spirit was to Rock Your World at the Santa Anita Derby in early April. Medina Spirit didn’t have an extra gear down the stretch at the Santa Anita Derby, but that could be by design with Baffert and company choosing to focus on peaking for the Derby.

At 15-1 I think the price is right for a bet on Medina Spirit. I’ll have him to both win and show at the Derby on Saturday.

Medina Spirit 15-1

If you can get the only Bob Baffert horse in the field at 15-1 I think you have to do it. Add in the fact that two of his second place finishes came to a horse that likely would have been a Derby favourite, and Medina Spirit starts to look like he could be the best horse in the field.

Below you can see Medina Spirit coast to a second place finish at the Santa Anita Derby.

Where To Bet On The 2021 Kentucky Derby

I will be placing my Kentucky Derby bets at SportsInteraction.com.  They are our top rated betting site for Canadians and this includes their racebook.  You can check out our how to bet on the 2021 Kentucky Derby in Canada page if you have more questions about getting your wagers placed.

I also suggest that you check out our horse race betting section to learn about the different bets you can make on the Derby, as well as some of the different racing terms you should know when placing your horse racing bets.

Ready to bet on the Kentucky Derby? Click here to visit SportsInteraction.com.

2 Responses to “2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Picks and Morning Line Odds”

  1. Wow, Nice handicapping Niko! Medina was down to 6-1 when I saw this earlier so didn’t play it but enjoyed watching the event tonight. Congrats on your bet!

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