My NFL handicapping season may be finally starting to turn around. The Eagles and Falcons both came through for me as 3 point favourites this past week. It was not a perfect week, with the Bengals losing to the Steelers, but going 2-1 against the spread is at least a start to turning this season around. My NFL spreads record on the season now sits at 6-9 and I’m beginning to claw back to .500.
I will be using SportsInteraction.com for all of the spreads and picks below. You can see our full SIA review here. I have 3 picks this week.
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinals
Denver -2.5- Arizona +2.5
The Cardinals have played a few decent games in a row now, and I think they may be ready to start stringing some wins together over the next couple weeks. The Cardinals lost by 10 points in Minnesota last week, but they played ok against a solid Vikings team. The week before that the Cards beat the 49ers in San Franciso and 3 weeks ago, the Cardinals lost by a field goal to the Seahawks. Yes, they are one of the weaker teams in the league, but I’m not convinced they can’t beat the Broncos at home in prime time this Thursday Night.
The Broncos have done nothing to impress me this season. They came out of the gate with two wins, but they were razor close home wins over two weak teams in the Seahawks and Raiders. Since then the Broncos have lost to the Ravens, Chiefs, Jets and Rams. The Broncos have looked alright at home, losing close games to a couple solid teams in the Chiefs and Rams, but on the road they’ve looked quite bad defensively, allowing the Ravens and Jets to run up the score against them.
This game is being played in Glendale, and I think that’s a huge factor that gives the edge to the Cardinals. Look for Arizona to win this game, and even if they don’t, it will likely be another razor close win for the Broncos. Take the points.
Play: Cardinals +2.5
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland +3- Tampa Bay -3
After starting off the season with a couple of big wins, the Bucs have regressed to who we thought they were, losing their last three games. Let’s not forget that the Bucs were thought of as the worst team in the league coming into the season.
Baker Mayfield had the first bad game of his career this past week, with the Browns losing to the Chargers, but that was bound to happen for the rookie. I still think he’s a very solid QB prospect, who will have more good games than bad ones this season. This is the perfect spot for Mayfield and the Browns offense to bounce back against a weak Bucs D.
The Browns are for real this year. I don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but they will win more games this season, including this one.
Play: Browns +3
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Dallas +1.5- Washington -1.5
The Cowboys looked awesome this past week hosting the Jaguars, but that’s just one game. I’m not ready to anoint this Cowboys team as contenders after that one game, and having them as only 1.5 point dogs on the road against the Redskins is doing just that.
Dallas is 0-3 on the road this season and they have just 37 total points in those 3 games combined. The Cowboys are still missing a #1 wide receiver and although running the ball a ton and throwing short to Beasley worked last week it’s a difficult strategy to implement on the road.
I still think the Redskins are one of the better teams in the league. They won a big home game against the Panthers this past week, and with AP running well and Alex Smith managing the game, I think they have a great shot at moving the ball against this Cowboys defense. I’m still not convinced the same will be true on the flip side. Washington has been great against the run this season and if they can shut down Elliott, the Cowboys offense crumbles.
Play: Redskins -1.5
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