What a day of football we had yesterday. Two tight games, that both went to overtime, with plenty of controversy in both. In the end the LA Rams and New England Patriots each booked their ticket to Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta, taking place in a couple weeks, on February 3rd, 2019.
I went 1-1 with my spread picks in the Conference Championship (although I did say I preferred the over bet in the Pats vs Chiefs game than the spread pick), which brings my playoff record this year to 4-3. It comes down to the Super Bowl as to whether or not I finish the playoffs in the black.
The Super Bowl is still two weeks away, but with yesterday’s games fresh in my memory I wanted to get my pick added for the big game right away. I will be adding plenty more Super Bowl articles in the next couple weeks including over/under pick, how to bet guide, fun and profitable prop bets, and more. So check back for more Super Bowl articles in the coming days.
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New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams
- New England -2.5
- Los Angeles +2.5
The Rams scraped out a win over the Saints on Sunday in a game that they really should have lost if the refs did their job. It was a sloppy performance, with some questionable coaching decisions, but in the end the Rams did enough to win, while not playing their best football.
The Rams could not establish the run against the Saints, which is a huge part of their offense. Todd Gurley stayed mostly on the sidelines for the game after a couple of early drops, but C.J. Anderson couldn’t bust any big runs either. The Rams will have to get their run game going in the Super Bowl, and I think they will. The Saints have one of the top 3 run defenses in the league, while the Patriots are much more susceptible on the ground, ranking 19th in the league in rush defense according to Football Outsiders (Saints were 3rd). Once the Rams establish Gurley and Anderson on the ground, they will be able to dictate the pace of the game.
On the other side of the ball, the Pats have relied on short passes to clinically move the ball down the field in their two playoff games. I don’t see this changing, and even though the Rams are ranked 6th against short passes, they are only ranked 28th against passes to the middle of the field, so I think Edelman could have a big day. Let’s not forget that the Chargers were ranked #3 against short passes and #6 against passes to the middle of the field and the Patriots were still able to have Edelman and White go off for monster games in that spot.
Overall, I think both teams are going to be able to get their offenses rolling in this one. I think this is going to be a back and forth affair that comes down to one or two big plays, just like the two Conference Championship games this past week. In the end, I just can’t bet against Tom Brady in this spot. The Pats continue to get the job done, and I think they will find a way to slow down the Rams offense, and Tom Brady will make the big plays to win the game down the stretch.
I think the 2.5 points is a very accurate spread, but I’m going to side with the Pats to get the job done and win by 3 or 4.
Play: Patriots -2.5