Colby Covington impressed in the main event of UFC Newark last week. We were on Colby to get the win over Lawler, and I’m looking forward to the potential title fight between Covington and Usman. I also hit the 2.60 underdog Miranda Granger in my other bet from last week, so it was a clean 2-0 sweep that we will look to build on.
This Saturday the UFC heads to Uruguay for another Fight Night card. Valentina Shevchenko defends her flyweight belt against Liz Carmouche. There are other solid fights on this card as well such as Perry vs Luque and Latifi vs Oezdemir.
I didn’t see a ton of value on this card, so I only have two plays once again (and one is more of a lean). I will be using the best odds available from any of our top rated betting sites for my picks.
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Valentina Shevchenko vs Liz Carmouche
Shevchenko is set to defend her 125 pound belt once again this Saturday, but the truth is that there isn’t anyone close to her level fighting at this weight class in the UFC. Her biggest threat will likely be a super fight against Jessica Andrade, who has been rumored to want to move up to challenge Valentina if she gets past Weili Zhang later this month.
Shevchenko has lost to two fighters in her UFC career. She lost two very close fights to Amanda Nunes, who has become the greatest female fighter of all time. The other loss was to Liz Carmouche way back in 2010. Valentina will get the opportunity to avenge this loss nearly a decade later. Shevchenko has improved tremendously in this time, while Carmouche is now 35 years old and has only been fighting once per year since 2014.
This fight shouldn’t be close. Valentina should be able to pick Carmouche apart from the outside, and likely get a stoppage later in the fight.
I’m on Shevchenko, but at these odds, I wouldn’t have a big bet on her because I don’t think there’s value at odds of 1.10.
Lean: Shevchenko 1.10 @ SportsInteraction.com
Mike Perry vs Vicente Luque
Mike Perry did impress me a great deal in his win over Alex Oliveira in April. He was able to pick apart a very strong fighter and get a very clear decision win. That win showed me he’s improved a great deal since his losses to Ponzinibbio, Griffin and Jouban.
That said, Vicente Luque is another huge step up. I think Luque is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He continues to step up and finish opponents, but he doesn’t seem to get higher quality opponents. Perry will also be a step up for Luque, who has finished five straight fighters since his decision loss to Leon Edwards in 2017. The guy is now 9-1 in his last 10 UFC fights, with 9 finishes (6 in the first round). Simply put, he’s a killer and should be on the short track to a UFC title fight.
I think Luque will be too skilled technically for Mike Perry, and I expect him to find an opening to hurt Perry and put him away early.
Luque is a top 5 welterweight and I expect him to show that this Saturday. He’s 9-1 with 9 finishes in his last 10 UFC fights, and his only loss came to Leon Edwards, who is at worst a top 3 welterweight.
Play: Luque 1.44 @ Bodog.eu
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