The UFC is heading to Rochester this Saturday for a Fight Night card that will be the final event of May. Rafael Dos Anjos and Kevin Lee are headlining the event with a welterweight fight, and I will have a big bet on that fight.
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Rafael Dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee
I was very surprised to see Kevin Lee open as the favourite in this fight. Lee is moving up to welterweight for the first time and is coming off a loss to Al Iaquinta, who I still think is an overrated lightweight. Lee will be giving up his usual size advantage and could be the smaller guy in this fight with RDA. Lee is 1-2 in his last 3 fights and his only really top level win in his career was the late TKO over Edson Barboza. I just think Lee is overrated and I thought he was exposed in the Iaquinta fight, but the oddsmakers did not agree.
Dos Anjos was the best lightweight in the world a few years ago and he’s now had five fights at welterweight going 3-2, so he’s comfortable at the weight class. He lost his last two fights to wrestlers Covington and Usman. Kevin Lee has wrestling ability, but he showed in the Iaquinta fight he doesn’t know how to use it effectively, and he doesn’t have the gas tank of a Colby Covington or the pressure and size of Kamaru Usman. I’d actually give RDA the advantage in the pressure fighting in this fight.
I think RDA is better everywhere and even though he lost two hard fought 5 round battles in his last two fights, he’s actually had an extra month of rest than Kevin Lee, so I don’t think him getting beat up by Usman will play a factor in this fight.
RDA is undersized for welterweight, but that won’t be a problem against another career lightweight in Kevin Lee. His skills and pressure should show through and I fully expect RDA to get his hand raised in this fight. This will be a big bet for me, similar to my Cerrone vs Iaquinta bet from a couple weeks ago.
Play: Dos Anjos 1.90 @ Bet365.com
***These odds are correct at the time of this article, but they will likely change as the fight approaches.
Aspen Ladd vs Sijara Eubanks
The only other fight I’m interested in betting this weekend is Ladd vs Eubanks. Aspen Ladd is 7-0 in her career, including going 2-0 in the UFC with impressive ground and pound TKO wins over Lina Lansberg and Tonya Evinger.
Eubanks is moving up to 135 pounds after missing weight in her decision win over Modafferi back in November. If you remember, Eubanks was supposed to fight Nicco Montano in the TUF 26 finale, but was pulled from the fight with kidney failure. Those fights were at flyweight, but she has fought at bantamweight for about half of her pro fights.
One of those bantamweight fights was a one-sided loss to Aspen Ladd at Inficta FC 21 in January, 2017. I’m expecting this fight to be similar with Ladd being able to use her size and pressure to get the win. I think Ladd has improved more than Eubanks since their last fight, so I’m expecting an even more dominant win (likely a TKO) for Ladd this time around.
Play: Ladd 1.33 @ Bodog.eu