NFL Week 11 Spread Betting Picks

After a solid 2-0 week 9, I followed it up by going 1-1 this past week.  The Lions had a tight game with the Browns, but were able to pull ahead in the fourth quarter and cover the 10 point spread.  My other play was not so fortunate, with the Redskins unable to slow down the Vikings offense, losing by 8 points at home, when I took them +1.5.  My season record now sits at 8-14, so the goal is now to get back to .500 by the end of the season.

I’ll be using for all of the spreads and predictions below.  You can see our full Sports Interaction review here.

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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

  • Detroit -3
  • Chicago +3

I’m going right back to the Lions this week.  The game with the Browns this past week was more difficult than many expected, but the Lions showed a lot of resiliency and the offense was able to click when it needed to in the second half.  I’ve been impressed with the teams red zone work over the past couple of weeks, as it’s improved quite a bit after a slow start to the season.  With Kenny Golloday back in the lineup, and Theo Riddick once again making big plays like he did last season, this offense looks to be at pretty much full health, so I expect them to be able to move the ball against the Bears this week and put up 24+ points, which should be enough to cover this spread.

The Bears need to run the ball to have success, and although the Lions did not contain the run very well last week against Cleveland, they stifled both the Packers and Steelers running attacks the previous weeks allowing under 80 yards on the ground both games.  I think Detroit will be able to contain Jordan Howard this week and I do not expect Mitchell Trubinsky to be able to move the ball effectively through the air, even though he is coming off a game where he threw for 297 yards.

Overall, the Lions are the better team in this matchup and should come away with the win.  I’ll lay the 3 points here.

Play: Lions -3

Buffalo Bills @ LA Chargers

  • Buffalo +4
  • Los Angeles -4

The Bills have been absolutely torched on the ground in the past two weeks.  They gave up 194 rushing yards to the Jets in week 9 and then followed that up by allowing a ridiculous 298 rushing yards this past week at home against the Saints.  That’s simply horrendous defending.

The Chargers like to run the ball and if the Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler duo can have even half as much success as Forte/Powell and Ingram/Kamara then the Chargers will easily cover this spread.  If you can’t stop the run then your entire defense falls apart, which is what seems to be happening to the Bills at this point in the season.

The one question mark with this play is Philip Rivers health.  He is in the NFL’s concussion protocol, but it seems like he should be able to play this Sunday if he moves through the protocol throughout the week.  This is something to monitor, but if Rivers plays, I really like the Chargers in this spot.

Play: Chargers -4


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