Which Bracket Picks Are Already in Trouble After Game 1?

The Picks Are Locked. The Odds Have Moved. Here’s What Changed.

With 74 completed brackets submitted to this year’s SBC Stanley Cup Playoff Bracket Contest, we have a clear snapshot of how Canadian hockey fans saw the postseason before a single puck dropped. Seven of the eight first-round series have now played Game 1 (only Oilers vs Ducks has yet to start), and the sportsbook odds have shifted to reflect those results.

That means the current series prices at Bet365 and Sports Interaction aren’t really a fair comparison to the bracket picks. Brackets were locked in before the puck dropped. The odds now bake in who won Game 1, who looked good, who looked bad, and who lost a key player along the way.

Still, the gap between the two tells a story. It tells us which picks are already in trouble, which are right on track, and which matchups have gotten more interesting, not less, after Game 1.

Picks in Trouble After Game 1

Penguins vs Flyers: The Biggest Shift

A full 79.7% of bracket entrants picked the Pittsburgh Penguins to beat the Philadelphia Flyers. Entering the series, oddsmakers had it as a close matchup, with Pittsburgh listed as a slight favourite.

Then Game 1 happened, and the Flyers took it. The current series prices now have Philadelphia at -165 (Bet365) or -170 (Sports Interaction), implying a 62-63% chance they advance. That’s a massive swing from where the series opened, and it means nearly four out of five brackets are now sitting with a pick that the market gives roughly a 38% chance of cashing.

If you’re one of the 59 brackets holding a Penguins pick, the good news is the series is still very much alive. Pittsburgh still has home ice advantage to reclaim. But the math has moved, and it’s moved sharply against you.

Stars vs Wild: The Other Big Reversal

Dallas was picked by 66.2% of bracket entrants, making the Stars one of the clearer public favourites in the West. The series opened with Dallas as a modest favourite, but the Wild took Game 1, and the odds have flipped hard.

Minnesota is now listed at -190 at both books (roughly 65.5% implied to win the series), while Dallas sits at +155 to +160. The public’s 66% confidence in the Stars looks a lot shakier when the market is giving them just a 38% chance to advance.

Bet365 has the better price if you want to back the Stars comeback at +160 (vs +155 at Sports Interaction).

Picks That Look Even Stronger Now

Hurricanes, Sabres, Avalanche, Golden Knights

Four of the series saw Game 1 go to the team that was favoured, and that team was also the public’s bracket pick. The Hurricanes, Sabres, Avalanche, and Golden Knights all held serve in Game 1, and their series prices now reflect deeper favourite status than when the brackets were locked.

  • Hurricanes vs Senators: Carolina picked by 71.6%, now priced at -300 (75.0% implied at Bet365).
  • Sabres vs Bruins: Buffalo picked by 70.3%, now at -325 at Sports Interaction (76.5% implied).
  • Avalanche vs Kings: Colorado picked by 98.6%, now at -1100 at Sports Interaction (91.7% implied). Bet365 has a steeper -1600, so if you’re betting the Avs to close it out, SIA is the better price.
  • Golden Knights vs Mammoth: Vegas picked by 73.0%, now at -325 at SportsInteraction.com (76.5% implied).

Brackets holding these picks are in good shape. The public and the books agreed, and Game 1 reinforced both views.

The Matchup That Got More Interesting

Canadiens vs Lightning: Montreal Stole Game 1

This series was already the closest on the board when brackets were locked. Contest entrants leaned slightly toward the Habs at 54.1%, while the books listed Tampa as around a 2-1 favourite. Then Montreal won Game 1 on the road.

Bet365 now has Montreal at -105 and Tampa at -115, essentially pricing it as a coin flip with the Habs up 1-0 in the series.

Brackets that picked Montreal now look strong heading into Game 2. The 45.9% that picked Tampa aren’t dead, but they need the Lightning to respond on home ice.

The Series Still to Play: Oilers vs Ducks

Only one series hasn’t started yet, and it’s a heavy favourite situation: 94.6% of brackets took the Edmonton Oilers. The current prices are Oilers -235 at SportsInteraction.com (better than Bet365’s -240) and Ducks +195 at both books (33.9% implied).

With no Game 1 result yet, this is the cleanest matchup to compare. The public is more confident in Edmonton than the books are, by about 25 percentage points. That’s a common pattern with big-name favourites in bracket contests: public picks consistently overvalue star power.

The 5.4% of brackets that took the Ducks are playing a real contrarian angle, and at +195, the market suggests it’s not nearly as crazy as the pick rate implies.

The Cup Picks Through One Game

The top Cup picks from the 74 completed brackets:

  • Colorado Avalanche: 31.5% (29 brackets)
  • Edmonton Oilers: 25.7% (19 brackets)
  • Dallas Stars: 9.5% (7 brackets)
  • Montreal Canadiens: 5.4% (4 brackets)
  • Ottawa Senators: 5.4% (4 brackets)
  • Carolina Hurricanes: 4.1% (3 brackets)
  • Buffalo Sabres: 4.1% (3 brackets)

Colorado’s Cup picks are in the best position. Avs backers picked the right team in Game 1 and have a series price that now implies a 92% chance of even getting past the first round. The seven brackets that took Dallas to win it all need the Stars to claw back in the series first, while the four Montreal backers have live long-shot tickets after Game 1.

Line Shopping: Where to Find the Better Price

Series prices differ between the two books, and the gaps are often bigger on underdogs. Here’s where the better price lives right now:

On longshots like the Kings at +750, the price difference alone can swing the value of a bet significantly. Line shopping matters, especially on underdogs.

What the Data Tells Us About Bracket Strategy

Looking at this year’s picks versus the opening odds, and then the post-Game 1 odds, a few lessons stand out:

Public picks lag behind the market. Two of the three biggest pick-vs-odds gaps (Penguins and Stars) were created by Game 1 upsets. Neither of those picks looked wrong when they were made. They just aged badly in 60 minutes of hockey. Bracket contests are unforgiving that way.

Name recognition costs you. The Oilers are the last series to start and already show a 25-point gap between public confidence and market pricing. Edmonton is a great team, but +195 on the Ducks suggests the books think the series is closer than bracket entrants do.

Chalk piles up at the top. Colorado at 98.6% and Edmonton at 94.6% in the first round means almost no brackets differentiated themselves on those picks. The contest will be won in the closer matchups and the Cup Final pick.

For the bettors out there following along, our NHL betting guide will walk you through how to sign up at a sportsbook and start placing bets on NHL games this playoffs.

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