UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit DraftKings Fantasy Picks

UFC 195It may not carry the same media attention and fanfare of UFC 194, but UFC 195 is still a PPV event and a very solid one at that.  Robbie Lawler always puts on a great show for the fans and Carlos Condit as a challenger definitely creates an interesting fight due to all of his devastating weapons.  The Duffy vs Poirier and Arlovski vs Miocic fights are also massive fights for their respective divisions, and two fights I’m very interested in.

DraftKings is running a $5 entry $150,000 guaranteed contest for UFC 195, with first place taking down a nice $15,000 pay day.

Click here to set your UFC 195 lineup…

In this article I’m going to rate every fighter on the card on a scale of 0-3 stars based on the value I see in them in a GPP lineup.  The fighters who have the ability to finish a fight get a much higher rating than those who may try to grind out a decision.  Check out the video below for a better understanding of what you should look for in fighters for your DraftKings lineups:

Here’s a DraftKings review if you’re new to DFS (daily fantasy sports).

Lawler vs Condit

  • Robbie Lawler $9800**
  • Carlos Condit $9600**

These guys are going to be throwing a lot of punches in this fight, and because it’s a 5 round main event, I suggest having one of these guys in each of your lineups.  I prefer Robbie Lawler, but the oddsmakers have Condit with a better chance to finish so pick your poison with these two.

Arlovski vs Miocic

  • Andrei Arlovski $8900**
  • Stipe Miocic $10500**

I like both of these guys as well.  It’s a heavyweight fight, which usually means there’s a good chance we’re going to see a knockout.  The oddsmakers don’t like Arlovski as much as I do for this fight, and I’ll definitely have him in plenty of lineups at his $8900 price tag.  I don’t think this is a must own fight, like some heavyweight battles that you know someone is going unconscious.  The oddsmakers see this fight having only about a 65% chance of a finish, which is lower than lots of heavyweight fights.  I’ll be on Arlovski a lot, but I think both guys are solid plays.

Tumenov vs Larkin

  • Albert Tumenov $10100***
  • Lorenz Larkin $9300

I’m all over Albert Tumenov from this fight.  The Russian prospect has odds of 1.935 to finish inside the distance, which is exactly what we’re looking for in GPP’s.  At a $10100 price tag he’s a steal in GPP contests at DraftKings.

Ortega vs Brandao

  • Brian Ortega $10300**
  • Diego Brandao $9100

Ortega has odds of 2.10 to finish Diego Brandao, so he has about a 48% chance to finish the fight and come up with a big score on DK.  At $10300 it’s very easy to fit Ortega into your lineups.  The 24 year old Ortega is coming off a TKO win over Thiago Tavares and I expect him to be able to handle Brandao as well, who has faltered when jumping up in the quality of his opponents.

Trujillo vs Sims

  • Abel Trujillo $10000*
  • Tony Sims $9400*

I will be tossing each of these fighters into some lineups.  There’s an over 70% chance of this fight ending with a finish before the final bell, and that makes beof of these fighters very interesting.  Trujillo is the better play in my opinion because I don’t think we will have too much difficulty with salaries when constructing lineups for this card and he has a slightly better chance to finish and win the fight (odds of 2.35 vs 3.20 for Sims).  But if you need to save a few dollars, Sims is a decent play as well.

McDonald vs Kanehara

  • Michael McDonald $11000**
  • Masanori Kanehara $8400

Michael McDonald is being given odds of 1.775 to finish this fight, which is the best odds on the card.  He’s also the most expensive fighter on the card at DraftKings, but there are so many good value plays that I think you should be able to include McDonald in several lineups.  The 24 year old has already fought the best of the bantamweight division and has only lost to Renan Barao and Urijah Faber in the UFC.  It’s been 2 years since McDonald was in the Octagon, but I’m expecting him to return with a bang and once again gain relevance in the division.

Morono vs Noke

  • Alex Morono $8500
  • Kyle Noke $8500***

This is a very interesting fight because Noke is dramatically underpriced.  This is because Noke was originally set to fight Kelvin Gastelum on this card and Gastelum was a big favourite.  With Gastelum injured, Alex Morono has stepped in to fight Kyle Noke, but this UFC newcomer has now made Noke a favourite.  Because DraftKings cannot change a fighters price tag after it’s set, this leaves Kyle Noke as a ridiculously good value play.

Noke is coming off a big TKO win over Peter Sobotta in November, and he’s ready to build on that in this new PPV event.  Noke has odds of 1.357 (74%) to win the fight and for $8500 you just can’t beat that value.  Also, with Noke in your lineup you’re able to pay up to pretty much any of the high priced fighters you like to fill out your lineup.

Ansaroff vs Kish

  • Nina Ansaroff $8700
  • Justine Kish $10700

I’m going to be steering clear of this fight.  There is a very small chance of a stoppage in this fight and even though Kish has a very good chance to win, I just see far better upside plays for better prices than the $10700 that she is listed at.

Holtzman vs Dober

  • Scott Holtzman $10400
  • Drew Dober $9000

Here is another fight that I’m going to be staying away from.  Both of these fighters often fight to decision and the oddsmakers only give about a 40% chance of us seeing a finish in this fight.  With all of the finishing ability in some of these other fights I don’t feel like I need exposure to either of these fighters.

Duffy vs Poirier

  • Dustin Poirier $8800*
  • Joe Duffy $10600***

This lightweight fight is the one where we will likely see a finish.  I really like Joe Duffy in this spot.  It’s a big step up in competition for him from what he’s had to deal with in the UFC so far, but he’s just such a complete fighter I think he will find a way to finish Poirier.  We’re talking about a guy who was a submission expert in MMA before becoming a professional boxer for a year in England.  He can finish the fight anywhere and although Poirier is a top end lightweight, I think Duffy has the ability to beat him and make a case for a second Irish superstar.

If you want to pay down, Poirier definitely has a shot at a finish.  He’s a killer, but I think he might be in over his head against another Irishman.

Tanaka vs Soto

  • Michinori Tanaka $9700*
  • Joe Soto $9700*

I don’t love either of these guys, but they aren’t horrible plays with each fighter being given around a 25% chance to finish.  If you’re looking for someone around $9700 these are decent options, but they wouldn’t be center-pieces of my lineups.

Garcia vs Westcott

  • Edgar Garcia $9200
  • Sheldon Westcott $10200**

Westcott is on a two fight losing streak in the UFC and he absolutely needs a big win here to stay with the promotion.  Edgar Garcia is in a similar situation in that he lost his only fight in the UFC a year ago in the first round via submission.  Garcia did not look good in his fight and I think he was only brought into the UFC because the Mexican card in 2014 needed more Mexican fighters to sell tickets.  I do think that Westcott will get the win in this fight and the oddsmakers agree.  He has odds of 1.98 to finish this fight, so at $10200 I still think he is a very good value play to kick off the prelims.

Ready to set your lineups?  Click here to enter the $5 UFC 195 contest at DraftKings.com.

In conclusion, the vast majority of my lineups will have Kyle Noke at $8500 so I have plenty of room to work out the other four fighters.  I’ll likely have one of the main event fighters in most lineups, as well as Albert Tumenov.  I also like Ortega, Duffy, McDonald and Westcott a lot.

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