2016 AT&T Byron Nelson: DraftKings Targets

ATT-Bryron-Nelson-DraftKingsAfter a somewhat uneventful tourney last week in which Jason Day went the distance, we’re hoping there will be a little more excitement and drama at the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.

TPC Four Seasons in Dallas plays host to the event annually and over the years has lent itself to a slew of low scoring. The course plays as a Par 70 and measures a shade over 7,100 yards. Last year’s tournament saw super plugg, Steven Bowditch win and to this day I can’t figure out how! Bowditch is such a bad golfer there’s a legitimate chance you and I could beat him by a handful of shots if we played a scramble versus his solo ball. Bowditch is so bad in fact, hes fired a round of 80+ at least 8 times in his last 7 starts. Those are truly gruesome numbers for a professional.

With TPC Four Seasons playing as a shortish course, I’d place a good amount of value on the longer hitters this week as there really isn’t a whole lot of trouble to be found off the tee. The reward of having a ton of short irons and wedges into the greens here is something that can make a huge difference come Sunday. Another little nugget to chew on this week is the ‘All 4 Rounds Under 70’ bonus of DK. Because this track plays as a Par 70, this bonus is extremely attainable this week and basically any player who makes the cut will likely be rewarded with it.

This weeks keys to success are rather short and sweet but have proven to be effective over the years here. First off, we’ll focus on Proximity to the Hole from 100-125 yards. This is a distance gap in which players of this caliber are expected to score so targeting guys who have shown they can do so will propel your lineups in the right direction. Next, we’ll look at Proximity to the Hole from 150-175 yards. This is the range in which I expect the majority of a players approaches to fall into this week so, again, targeting guys who are efficient from this range is the most sensible play. Last, but not least, we’ll key in on Strokes Gained Putting as the guys who roll the rock the best this week will find themselves at or near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday evening.

High End Targets ($10,000+)

• Dustin Johnson

DJ is likely to be the chalk pick of the week but for good reason as he’s proven to be extremely comfortable on this track having finished no higher than 20th since 2009. DJ has the length to completely overpower this course and that is invaluable this week with how forgiving TPC Four Seasons is. With the greens expected to be soft for the first day of play, it gives a massive boost to Johnson as his wedge play (and he’ll have a lot of them) will really reap the benefits. His proximity to the hole from 100-125 of 16’7″ ranks 9th on TOUR. Plug Dusty into your lineups without hesitation this week and avoid the temptation to pay up to be contrarian with Spieth.

DK Salary: $11,900

• Matt Kuchar

Kuch is coming off another wonderful showing at THE PLAYERS in which he finished T3 on the heels of a fine Sunday showing. Since 2009, Kuch has found himself inside the top 39 here in Dallas. Such experience is exactly what we love to key in on as proven comfort at a specific track is truly the best predictor of a golfers success. His string of  solid form only accentuates the need to have him in your lineups this week. A wonderful putter year after year, Kuch is gaining 1.476 strokes on the field on Bentgrass and has parlayed that into a cuts made success rate of 80.2% in 121 starts.

DK Salary: $10,500

Mid Level Targets ($9,900 – $8,000)

• Brooks Koepka

Brooks makes for a lovely DK play every time he tees it up as his birdie upside is tremendous. With DK’s overweight birdie scoring of 3pts per, it’s immensely important to target guys with said upside. Brooks flushes it from our both of our targeted distance gaps as he averages 18’11” to the hole from 100-125 yards (T45) and 27’3″ from 150-175 (T59). Those numbers with this mans incredible talent have me extremely high on him this week. A solid all around putter, Koepka gains 1 stroke on the field on Bentgrass surfaces and this has resulted in a 78.3% cuts made clip in 23 starts on said surfaces.

DK Salary: $9,600

• Jason Dufner

As is the case with Dipner every week, you just don’t know whether his putter is going to show up or not. In 104 starts on Bentgrass, Duf has lost 1.086 strokes to the field on the greens. He has however manged to make 64.4% of his cuts over that stretch, a figure that goes to show just how pure his ball striking is. It’s no secret that Duf is comfortable here as he won in 2012 and has finished no higher than 48th since 2011. So, if he can find his groove on the greens, we should be in for a good score. Although the field here is a little weak, I still think your average player may overlook Dufner in his price range with big names such as Snedeker and Oosthuizen just above him.

DK Salary: $9,100

• Jimmy Walker

Slippin’ Jimmy is always a premium target whenever the PGA T swings into Texas. Although he has missed his last two cuts, I still expect Jimmy to be a popular play this week as his upside is tremendous and he’s proven on this track. Jimmy is an absolute flusher of the dimples as his prox ranks from our key distances are truly incredible. The sweet swinging Texan is averaging 18’1″ from 100-125 yards (T23) and 25′ from 150-175 (7th). You may look at those numbers and think they’re somewhat pedestrian but I challenge you to drop 10 balls at both distances and see how many you can place inside them. As one of the better putters of our time, Jimmy is gaining 0.706 strokes on the field on Bentgrass surfaces.

DK Salary: $8,800

• Gary Woodland

Gary is another player with whom I’m extremely high on this week. He’s an absolute bomber off the tee as he ranks 3rd in Driving Distance and as we mentioned earlier with DJ, length + no real threat of penalty off the tee is an extreme positive this week. I honestly feel like you can get DJ-like production from Woodland at a fraction of the cost this week as he outmatches DJ in both prox stats. The thing is, DJ has proven he has what it takes to win out here multiple times over while Gary does have two wins to his credit, he just doesn’t hold the same amount of consistency week after week. However, for his mid level price point, I think Woodland is an extremely high upside play. From 100-125 yards he’s nipping the ball to an average of 17’5″ and an astounding 23’9″ from 150-175.

DK Salary: $8,500

• Bryson DeChambeau

Our boy Bryson is back in action this week and I’m lovin’ it. This kid has nothing but pure talent and he’s going to be a prominent figure in the game for a long time to come. As a product of SMU, DeChambeauty is no stranger to the Dallas area and I expect hes been putting some good leg work into this course over the last few weeks in which he hasn’t been teeing it up with the big boys. As such, I think he could be in line for a very positive showing here. It’s no secret that Bryson has all the tools to compete week in and week out and this open, short layout could be exactly what he needs. Think of his wonderful performance at the RBC Heritage in which he played a short course with relative ease by nipping his approach shots and setting up makeable birdie looks. I feel as though we could be in for the same kind of treatment this week.

DK Salary: $8,300

• Tony Finau

Tony has groomed himself into a fine professional golfer. This chap had been grinding tours for a long time before finally managing to secure his PGA card earlier this year when he grabbed his ‘breakthrough’ victory at the Puerto Rico Open. I use breakthrough loosely there as the field was, for lack of better terms, utter shit. Now, I’m not here to bash Tony as I actually do believe he’s a good fit for this course as is evidenced by his T10 finish last year. His combination of raw power and solid putting is what can lead him to a strong finish this week. Finau ranks number 1 on TOUR in driving distance and gains 0.911 strokes on the field on Bentgrass surfaces. This combo could translate to a ton of birdies this week, thus making him a really attractive play.

DK Salary: $8,100

Lower End Targets (<$8,000)

• Keegan Bradley

Keeeegs, the boy who lost his way. There’s seemingly no rhyme or reason as to when and why Keegan is going to play good anymore and that’s what makes him one of the toughest DFS golfers to get right. However, within DFS we’re trying to leverage empirical data into predictive results and under those circumstances, Keegan lines up well this week. His maiden victory came here in 2011, a year which saw him go on to win the PGA Championship in August as well. Since 2011, Bradley has finished no higher than 29th here and that’s a tourney résumé we want to target. Although the results haven’t really been there this year, his stats still measure up favorably this week as Keegan leaves 19’2″ from 100-125 (T54) and 25’6″ from 150-175 (T16). His putter has always been fair to him as he gains 0.745 strokes on the field on Bentgrass and has turned that into a 74.6% cuts made clip in 72 starts.

DK Salary: $7,900

• James Hahn

Hahn won on TOUR just two weeks ago and has gone seemingly overlooked. There was little to no mention of him around THE PLAYERS last week and from what I’ve seen, this week is much of the same. He’s a proven multiple tourney winner but the only downside I can see to him this week is that he seems to perform better in tougher events versus shootouts and this week will surely be a shootout. Having said that, Hahn is clearly in good form and that will only increase his upside so I still think he’s a strong play here this week. In his two trips here to TPC Four Seasons, Hahn has finished T5 and T55 in 2014 and 2015 respectively.

DK Salary: $7,700

• Jonas Blixt

Blixt has sort of been my darling child in PGA DFS this year as I think I’ve got him pretty well figured out in terms of when to load up and when to steer well clear. Blixt is the type of player that has severe blowup potential and that’s not something we want any piece of. However, those blowups have come on relatively tight, penalizing courses which is far from the truth here in Dallas. There are a few similarities that can be drawn between some holes at Pebble Beach, a site where Blixt played very well, and here. Without the worry of a wayward tee shot completely derailing his round, I think we’ll see the Swede in contention this week. In his two appearances here in 2012 and 2015, Jonas has secured finishes of T3 and T30 respectively.

DK Salary: $7,700

• Bryce Molder

Bryce Molder has been playing extremely solid golf of late and flying wayyyy under the radar. This week is a wonderful opportunity to grab him at criminally low ownership relative to his production expectancy. With a weaker field this week, Molder’s production would, as a result, be expected to increase but his price hasn’t increased so he is representing some extreme value to me this week. Molder has made the cut in 4 of his last 6 trips here and has made his last 7 straight cuts having finished no higher than T47 in any of those as well. In those 7 straight cuts, Bryce has averaged 12 birdies which would automatically equate to 36pts in that category. However, at a much more difficult track last week, Bryce was able to roll in 17 birdies so I’m expecting a very strong showing from the lad here in Dallas.

DK Salary: $7,600

• Will Wilcox

If any of you haven’t followed Will Wilcox on Twitter yet and are avid PGA DFS players, you have to get on him. This guy is as transparent as they come in terms of whether he feels you should draft him or not and he gets a true kick out of the DFS community. Here is some proof below:

will

Will is another player who’s tough to get right as he’s a pretty streaky player but he offers a ton of upside as he has the ability to roll in a huge chunk of birdies and grab you those coveted points. This is a guy who fired a final round 59 at the Utah Championship in 2013 on the Web.com Tour. With his spirits upbeat, Will has lobbied for himself this week and I trust his word so I’ll be taking some shots.

DK Salary: $7,000

All proximity stats in this article are a product of the PGA TOUR:

PGA TOUR Stats

All putting stats are a product of FGM:

Fantasy Golf Metrics Putting Splits Analyzer

May 18, 2016 by : Posted in Golf No Comments
Travis Joyce

More About

Retired high school hockey player and sports enthusiast from Moncton, NB.
Travis is our resident PGA expert. He does a tremendous amount of statistical research each week and generally adds his article on Wednesday afternoon.

View Posts - Visit Website

Leave a Reply