First things first, I also wanted to draw your attention to my pick 6 article for outright winner betting for the Valspar Championship. There will definitely be a bit of overlap in this article because it goes without saying that the players I think have a good shot at winning will also be players I like on DK this week.
The Valspar Championship is a weaker field event compared to last weeks WGC-Mexico Championship and for this reason you will see the top golfers (Thomas & Stenson) with very high salaries compared to where they were valued last week. Sticking with the same format as last week I’ll go through ever tier giving my favourite play and some reasons behind why I will be rostering that player at DK this week. The big tournament at DraftKings.com this week is the $500,000 Dogleg with a $33 entry fee. I’ll be shooting some lineups into that contest hoping to take down a big $50K payday.
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Alright, here we go…..
I wanted to make this first tier include the guys at $10,000 because I really like one golfer above the rest at this range and that’s Henrik Stenson at $11,700. Stenson withdrew last week at the WGC-Mexico Championship with a stomach flu and destroyed a lot of DK teams in the process. I think some players may be hesitant to roster him this week because of recency bias, but I think it goes without saying that if he’s fully healthy he is the best golfer in this field.
At a $200 discount from Justin Thomas I think Stenson is a great play that might be lower owned than he should be. His game matches up nicely with this course and his long iron game should give him several birdie opportunities even on the difficult to hit greens, while his scrambling has also been solid to allow him to avoid bogeys, which will be key this week.
He’s finished 4th and 11th in his two starts over the past five years at this event and I expect a big bounce back week for Stenson who normally plays well after WD’s.
Target: Henrik Stenson $11,700
Bill Haas is an absolute horse for the course at $9200. He has performed extremely well at Valspar in the past finishing 2nd last year and 14th in 2014. His key stats also line up absolutely perfectly with this course with Haas currently ranked #1 on the PGA Tour in both scrambling and bogey avoidance. There are 5 par 3 holes on the course, which should help Haas as well because he has the ability to score on the longer par 3’s.
Haas has solid form coming in as well finishing 32nd, 11th, 17th and 13th over his past four outings on Tour. Haas is my favourite bet of the week at 30/1 and he will be a staple among my DK teams as well this week.
Target: Bill Haas $9200
I’m going straight to the top of the $8000 range and looking at Gary Woodland at $8900. Woodland has been playing exceptionally well this season with T5, T2 and T38 finishes over his last 3 events. That T38 at the WGC Mexico Championship may result in lower ownership than he should have considering how well Woodland has been playing.
This course also matches up nicely for Woodland who has been very solid with long irons this year and basically ranks in the 20th-40th range for all the key stats I’m looking at this week including 18th in T2G, 15th in strokes gained approach and 32nd in scrambling.
Target: Gary Woodland $8900
I went to the top of the $8000 range, so I’ll go to the bottom of the $7000 range and look at Ollie Schniederjans who is having an outstanding year to date. Schniederjans is 6 for 6 in cuts made this season and also has put up two top 10’s over his past four events. I think it’s only a matter of time before Ollie gets a win on tour this season and in a weaker field event like this week I think he has a great chance to be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Ollie has odds of 66/1 to win this tourney, which makes him a great value play at $7100. His stats aren’t great for the course, but they aren’t bad either and if he can drain some putts he has a great chance to put up a big DK score.
Target: Ollie Schniederjans $7100
If you want to pay up to Stenson or even Haas and Woodland you may need to find a value play in this $6k range. My favourite play down at this range is Cameron Smith at $6600. Smith is a young guy with a ton of talent who can make birdies and rack up DK points. He’s ranked 26th on tour in birdie or better percentage and is actually ranked 10th in DraftKings points on par 71 courses.
The upside is definitely there every time you roster Smith and at this price tag I think it makes a lot of sense to use him in GPP’s this week.
Target: Cameron Smith $6600
I don’t expect the weather to play a factor this week in Tampa Bay, but as always you should check the weather Wednesday night to see if there’s a chance one flight has an advantage on Thursday and Friday.