In the last UFC event I ended up pretty much breaking even at DraftKings.com. Saint Preux losing, definitely hurt my chances, and I also had Alvey and Timothy Johnson through quite a few of my lineups, which didn’t help. My Nunes, Hall, Wilson and Holtzman picks were all solid though. Here’s my full article on that card if you wanted to see how my predictions played out.
But now, let’s move on to this week’s Fight Night card in Saskatoon. The UFC is back in Canada and that has caused me to take even more interest in this card. Holloway vs Oliviera is the headliner and I personally think that Holloway is a legitimate contender in the featherweight division. There are also several Canadian prospects on the card that should be interesting to watch.
This week DraftKings.com is running a $50,000 prize pool contest with a $3 entry fee, which is up from the $40K guaranteed for that last card.
Once again, I’m going to be giving each fighter 1-3 stars based on how much value I see in them based on their DraftKings.com price tag. If the fighter is getting 0 stars, then I am not using them in any of my lineups.
Holloway vs Oliviera
- Max Holloway $10,600***
- Charles Oliviera $8,800**
I’m likely going to have one of these fighters in each of my DraftKings lineups. I generally like to have a main event fighter for 2 reasons. Number one, they have a longer alotted time to rack up points or finish the fight, which gives this fight an advantage over the others. And number two, it’s just fun to have the last fight of the card matter for your lineups.
I’m on Holloway in most of my lineups, but I think Oliviera is actually a decent play too. Holloway is being given odds of 1.89 to finish the fight (53% chance), which is good for his price, but Oliviera’s odds to finish of 3.75 are also good for his price point. I think Holloway will win though, so I’m leaning more towards him.
Magny vs Silva
- Neil Magny $9,000
- Erick Silva $10,400***
In this fight, Magny actually has decent odds to win the fight of 2.50 at Bet365.com, but he’s not a likely finish, which is why I’m staying away. I think Silva has fought much tougher competition in his UFC career and this should show through in this fight. Silva is also a finisher, which is great for GPP contests at DraftKings. He has odds of 1.95 (51%) to win by a finish, which are great odds for his price point.
Cote vs Burkman
- Patrick Cote $9,400
- Josh Burkman $10,000
I like Cote to win this fight, which is why I’m staying away from this fight all together on my rosters. Cote’s last four fights in the UFC have gone to decision and that’s not how you rack up points at DraftKings.
Laprise vs Trinaldo
- Chad Laprise $10,700
- Francisco Trinaldo $8,700
Here is another fight that has a good chance of going to decision. Laprise is a huge favourite with odds of 1.28 at Bet365.com (making him the biggest favourite on the card), but his odds to finish the fight are just 3.22 (31%). He’s not a bad pick in 50/50’s, but because he’s won his last 5 fights by decision, I’m staying away from him.
Aubin-Mercier vs Sims
- Olivier Aubin-Mercier $10,800*
- Tony Sims $8,600**
Here’s a fight that has a good chance of a finish. Aubin-Mercier has a 6-1 record in professional MMA, with all wins coming via submission. Tony Sims is the other kind of finisher with 10 of his 12 wins coming by knockout, while the other two have come by submission. I’m actually leaning towards Aubin-Mercier to win this fight, but based on these prices I like Sims a little bit better. He has the knockout power to finish and will surely be Aubin-Mercier’s biggest test since Chad Laprise. I don’t mind you taking either of these guys on your card though, because there is a great chance of a finish one way or another.
Moroz vs Letourneau
- Maryna Moroz $10,500**
- Valerie Letourneau $8,900
Maryna Moroz is a beast, who I see getting a title shot in the Strawweight division very soon. She’s finished all 6 of her fights, with the last 5 being in the first round. This included an absolute demolition of top prospect Joanne Calderwood in her UFC debut.
Letourneau is no slouch though, which makes this a bit of a risky play. She lost a split decision to Claudia Gadelha, the second ranked Strawweight in the UFC 4 fights ago, and has put together 3 wins since. She doesn’t finish a lot of fights though, which means she’s not a great play here.
Stout vs Perez
- Sam Stout $9,700
- Frankie Perez $9,700**
Perez is the favourite to win this fight with odds of 1.80 at Bet365.com. He also has far better odds of finishing that Stout with odds of 3.1 (32%) compared to 5.34 (19%). Stout has been knocked out in his last two fights and he is surely on the down swing of his career. Perez doesn’t really have KO ability, but if he catches Stout it could still be lights out. Perez also has the ability to finish fights via submission, so I think there’s a good chance we see a finish by Perez here.
Jabouin vs Arantes
- Yves Jabouin $9,100
- Felipe Arantes $10,300*
Jabouin’s last 6 MMA wins have come via decision, so that takes him off of my list. Arantes also has quite a few decision wins on his record, but his odds to finish are 3.20 (31%), so he’s not a horrible play at $$10,300. He likely won’t make many of my teams, but I may add him to a lineup to differentiate if need be.
de Lima vs Krylov
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima $9,900***
- Nikita Krylov $9,500***
Now here’s a fight where there is almost surely going to be a finish. de Lima has odds of 2.02 (50%) to finish the fight, while Krylov has odds of 2.26 (44%). Add that up and the oddsmakers think there is a 94% chance that this fight will not go to a decision.
Krylov has never been to a decision in his entire 18-4 MMA career, while de Lima only has 2 decisions on his 13-2-1 record. de Lima finished his first 2 UFC fights in a total time of 2 minutes and 19 seconds, while in each of Krylov’s last 4 UFC fights the fight ended in the first round.
You have to have either one of these guys on each of your GPP teams.
Beal vs Kelades
- Chris Beal $10,100
- Chris Kelades $9,300
This fight is being given a 58% chance of going to a decision. Neither one of these fighters really has a lot of weapons at their disposal. I’m staying away from both of these guys on all of my rosters.
Silverio vs Campbell
- Elias Silverio $11,000
- Shane Campbell $8,400**
If you’re looking for a cheaply priced fighter to add into your roster, look no further than Shane Campbell. Bet365.com is giving him odds of 3.00 to win this fight, but his odds of 4.75 to finish, show that if he is to win, there is a good chance you’ll get a lot of points from it. At Silverio’s price there are a lot of better options.
Campbell’s first career UFC fight was a knockout loss to Makdessi, but before that Campbell had 3 knockout’s in a row in his MMA career. He’s also an aggressive kick-boxer, so he will put up points for you in the significant strike category.
Cirkunov vs Joll
- Misha Cirkunov $11,100**
- Daniel Jolly $8,300
Cirkunov is the most expensive fighter on this card and for good reason. He has odds of 1.76 (57%) to finish this fight with Daniel Jolly. Cirkunov is on a four fight, first round, finishing streak since 2013. He’s finally made it to the UFC and should be ready to show he belongs by continuing to be aggressive.
Daniel Jolly is 5-0 in his career, but this will be a huge step up in competition for him. There’s a great chance of a finish in this fight and it should be Misha coming out on top.
If you want to learn more about daily fantasy MMA click here. I go over how to pick your players and the scoring, which is very important to understand when picking fights.
Tagged With : UFC Saskatoon