UFC 190 DraftKings Fantasy MMA Picks

UFC_190_event_posterDraftKings continues to up their game.  At UFC 189, which was arguably the most anticipated UFC event to date, they held a $3 entry contest with $75,000 in total prizes.  Well that was a success and now they’re upping their game.  The main event at DraftKings.com for UFC 190 is going to be a $3 entry contest with $100,000 in guaranteed prize pool.  Once again this is the biggest contest in MMA fantasy history and you can enter for just $3.

Click here to set your UFC 190 DraftKings lineup…..

Below I’m going to look at every fight on the card and give the DraftKings price for each fight.  I’ll then give my pick with 1-3 stars (3 stars being the best value in my opinion).  I will also add in betting odds if I’m personally making a bet on any of the fights.  Judging by my UFC 189 article, this is going to be long, but it will have a lot of info….

Here’s a review of DraftKings if you haven’t heard of it….

The Sports Betting CanadianI had a blast at UFC 189 watching one of the best cards of all-time.  On top of being there just a few rows from the floor I also absolutely killed it with my DraftKings lineups.  Every single lineup I put in cashed and my only losing fighter for the night was Rory, who put up one hell of a battle.  The DraftKings VIP package was top notch and I’ll definitely be trying to win the next one they have available.

For UFC 190 I’m back to watching at the bar.

Rousey vs Correia

  • Ronda Rousey $12,200**************
  • Bethe Correia $7,200

I couldn’t just stop at three stars for this Ronda Rousey pick.  Yes, she is the most expensive fighter on the card, but she is as close to a guaranteed finish you will find in the UFC, and she will likely do it in the first round.  I’m going to have Ronda on every single one of my lineups this Saturday.  I’m not worried about Ronda wanting to beat Correia up a bit first.  In fact that will just add points to her score.  A late first round finish after several significant strikes would be ideal.

SportsInteraction.com has Rounda Rousey to win in round 1 at odds of 1.43.  I’m going to have some action on that prop.

Rua vs Nogueira

  • Shogun $10,500**
  • Little Nog $8,900**

The odds of Rua winning inside the distance is 2.10 and the odds of Little Nog finishing is 4.35.  These are both pretty good odds for their prices, so I’m likely going to sprinkle both of these guys throughout a few lineups.  I’ll likely have more Nogueira though because I personally see this fight going either way.

Rua has been knocked out in his last 2 fights, while Nogueira is coming off a huge knockout loss to Anthony Johnson.  Whoever lands the first big punch could win this fight.

Bruno vs Franca

  • Fernando Bruno $9,200
  • Glaico Franca $10,200

I did not watch TUF Brazil, so I don’t know a lot about these fighters.  Bruno has odds of 4.70 to win inside distance, while Franca has odds of 2.7.  The unknown surrounding these guys and the fact that there are a lot of heavyweights on this card makes me lean towards staying clear of both of these guys.  I’m personally going to be hoping for a decision in this fight because I won’t be on either guy.

Vieira vs Lopes

  • Reginaldo Vieira $8,100
  • Dileno Lopes $11,300*

Another TUF Brazil fight that I don’t know much about.  Vieira has odds of just 6.45 to finish the fight, so I won’t be taking him.  Lopes is the second most expensive fighter on the card next to Rousey.  I might sprinkle Lopes into one or two lineups if I have room, but with odds of 2.45 for a finish he isn’t great value here either compared to some heavyweights.

Struve vs Nogueira

  • Stefan Struve $10,800**
  • Big Nog $8,600***

Here’s a heavyweight fight where we will definitely see a finish.  I will likely have one of these two guys on every single one of my lineups because I’m expecting a fast finish in this fight.  Struve has odds of 1.87 to finish, while Big Nog has odds of 3.05.  I’m going to have Minotauro on a lot of my lineups because he is great value here for a 1/3 chance of a finish.  Struve has been knocked out in his last two trips to the Octagon and now has been knocked out 6 times in his MMA career.  That adds up.  I also need to find some less expensive fighters to counteract the $12,200 salary I will be spending on Rousey in each lineup.

Palelei vs Silva

  • Sao Palelei $10,600**
  • Antonio Silva $8,800***

This is another fight where I will have one of these two men in each of my lineups.  We are going to see a finish here so there are big points up for grabs.  Palelei has odds of 1.67 to win inside distance, while Bigfoot has odds of 3.10.  I expect Palelei to get the knockout in this one simply because Bigfoot’s chin is completely shot and one solid punch from the Australian knockout artist should do the job.  Bigfoot has been knocked out in 5 of his last 8 fights.  That said, he does have knockout power in his hands and Palelei could be considered a step down in competition for Bigfoot, so it’s anyone’s guess how this plays out.  For all of these reasons I will have similar exposure on both men.

Gadelha vs Aguilar

  • Claudia Gadelha $11,200
  • Jessica Aguilar $8,200

This is Gadelha’s first trip back into the octagon since her split decision loss to the current dominant champion of the Women’s Bantamweight Division, Joanna Jedrzejczyk.  After watching the dominance Joanna has put on the rest of the top ladies in the division you have to think that Gadelha is the next best in the division.

Aguilar is a bit of a wildcard though.  She’s won her last 10 fights dating back to November 2010, and that includes a win over Carla Esparza, who was the initial Strawweight Champion in the UFC.

I’m going to be staying away from this fight beacuse Aguilar is a decision fighter without a lot of finishing weapons.  Her odds to win inside distance are 6.45, while Gadelha’s are just 4.20.  I’m going to be staying away from this fight all together.

Magny vs Maia

  • Neil Magny $9,000*
  • Demian Maia $10,400

Maia is a grappler and this could very well be a boring fight.  I’m going to stay away from Maia at $10,400, but I might be on Magny at $9,000 if I need a cheaper fighter.  Magny has odds of 4.80 to finish the fight, which isn’t great, but he has knockout power and he’s riding a 7 fight winning streak into Brazil.  Even if he doesn’t get the finish I think he has a great chance of winning this fight.  His odds are 2.45, which makes his $9,000 price tag a decent value.

Cummins vs Cavalcante

  • Patrick Cummins $10,600
  • Rafael Cavalcante $8,800***

I’m still not sold on Patrick Cummins.  He has looked good against poor fighters and then he was knocked out in the first round by Ovince St Preux.  Either way, he’s not the type of fighter I want to score points for me in DraftKings.  He has odds of just 3.00 to finish this fight.

Cavalcante though is great value at $8,800.  I have him set at 3 stars and I will be using him quite a bit.  He has odds of 2.80 to finish this fight, which is amazing for his price.  He’s an inconsistent fighter, but if he pulls out his best stuff we could definitely see a knockout.  I’ll be rolling the dice with him a bit.

Taleb vs Alves

  • Nordine Taleb $8,300
  • Warlley Alves $11,100

I’m going to be staying away from this fight for the most part.  There are just better options than these guys on the board and I don’t see how they will fit into my lineups at these prices.  Taleb might find his way onto one if I need an extremely cheap fighter.

Issa vs Alcantara

  • Leandro Issa $8,400
  • Iuri Alcantara $11,000*

Alcantara has odds of 2.05 to finish this fight, which is decent for a guy priced at $11,000.  He will be getting on to a few of my lineups in order for me to supplement my heavyweights.

Miranda vs Hester

  • Vitor Miranda $9,100**
  • Clint Hester $10,300

This is a very tight fight according to the oddsmakers, which makes Miranda a pretty good play at $9100.  He has odds of finish the fight of 3.95, while Hester has just 3.85 for an extra $1200.  Miranda will be on some of my lineups.

Cannetti vs Viana

  • Guido Cannetti $8,500**
  • Hugo Viana $10,900*

Cannetti is a strong play at $8,500.  He has odds of 3.60 to finish inside distance and is not nearly as big a dog as these prices indicate.  Viana has odds of 2.45 for a finish, so I might also sprinkle him into a lineup or two to have some exposure.

So there you have it.

That’s my breakdown of the value of each fighter according to their prices at DraftKings.com.

I’m probably going to have about 10 lineups in the $100,000 UFC 190 main event and you can probably come close to determine what those lineups will be from reading this article.

Let me know if you have some success this Saturday.  Click here to set your lineup.  Good luck!

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