Last week I went with Drew Brees knowing he would be low owned against the Seahawks. He was only 5% owned, but only put up a moderate game with 20.7 DK points. Luck was my second QB and he also finished with 20 points, while Winston, who was the chalk play of the week finished with 18.8. Overall, I didn’t hit the correct QB last week, which was Derek Carr of the Raiders on the flip side from Winston in the Raiders vs Bucs game. Hopefully we can hit the top performer this time around.
I’ve also added a running back targets post for the week that you should check out.
Drew Brees ($7200) + Brandin Cooks ($7500)
Brees price stayed pretty low after it dropped to $6900 for his game with the Seahawks last week. At the beginning of the season he was priced at $8100 and it’s not like he wasn’t paying off that salary with 4 out of 8 weeks getting 28+ points this season. Yes, his upside is higher playing at home in the Superdome, but this matchup with the 49ers is simply too juicy to pass up.
The Saints are only 3.5 point favourites in this game and the total is the second highest on the week at 52.5 points. All signs point to a big week from Drew Brees and company. The 49ers play a very fast paced game, which results in their opponents having more opportunities with the ball to put up points. If you look at the passing yards allowed the 49ers actually don’t give up that many, keeping the opposing QB under 300 yards in all but one game this year, but a big reason for that is the opposing team building such a big lead early and then simply running over the 49ers for the rest of the game. With a spread of only 3.5 points this game could stay close and if it does it could result in a massive shootout.
I’m pairing Brees with Brandin Cooks because according to FootballOutsiders.com, the 49ers are the worst team in the league against opposing WR1’s. I’m also very open to adding in Michael Thomas for $5500.
Andrew Luck ($6700) + Donte Moncrief ($5800)
The Colts vs Packers game has the highest total on the slate with a massive 54 point over/under. Rogers is the expensive choice between these two, but I think Luck has bigger upside based on game flow. Andrew Luck always has the potential for a monster game throwing the football and with Donte Moncrief back in the lineup that’s one more weapon for Luck to use.
There are question marks about whether TY Hilton will be able to suit up for this game due to a hamstring injury. My hope is that he at least suits up, but Luck focuses on throwing the ball to big Donte Moncrief who with one game under his belt should be ready to get back to his top form. He’s also at a nice discount from week 2 when he was priced at $6400.
Colin Kaepernick ($5600) + Nobody
I don’t normally do this, but I think this is an interesting spot to go naked Kaepernick in your DK lineups. Kaepernick has racked up the rushing yards in his first two starts of the season with 66 and 84 yards respectively. Against this Saints team that gives up the second most points to fantasy RB’s I could see Kaepernick break the 100 yard rushing plateau and add in a touchdown, which already brings his total to around 20 points before he even throws the ball. Add in a couple hundred passing yards with a throwing touchdown and you’re already up to 32 points, which would absolutely smash value and be one of the biggest QB performances of the week.
The 49ers receivers, as well as Kaepernick’s accuracy, are so hit and miss that it’s very difficult to roster any of them, but if you really want to pair Kaepernick with someone and hope for that TD, I think saving some more money and rostering Vance McDonald is how I would play it. But I’d be much more likely to go naked Kaepernick and hope for him to hit that 100 yard mark on the ground.
I should note that Kaepernick has only broken 100 yards rushing 3 times in his career, but if he’s going to do it again, it’s in this Chip Kelly offense against this Saints team.
Brees and Luck should both be pretty heavily owned, but they’re each in great spots. With Kaepernick, you don’t get the benefit of being able to correlate him with his receivers, but I think he’s in a great spot for a solid personal performance and could be low owned.