The second leg of the 2015 FedEx Cup Playoffs is upon us and we’re looking to improve on an absolutely horrid DFS showing last week. For the first time in my daily fantasy golf career I watched as four of my six players missed the cut and my tournament was completely over on Friday. Turning the page to this week, we have a rather slim field of just 100 players. Every week the Playoffs go on, the field will get slimmer and slimmer which unfortunately reduces our overall edge but allows us to be supremely confident in our picks.
TPC Boston has played host to the Deutsche Bank Championship since its inception in 2003. Not an overly long course by today’s standards as it measures just over 7,200 yards and registers as a Par 71. Last years tournament saw Chris Kirk charge towards the title with weekend rounds of 64-66 to grab the victory by 2 shots over Geoff Ogivly and Russell Henley. TPC Boston is highlighted by lots of grass bunkers and “chocolate drop” mounding around the greens. With the possibility of many uneven and tricky lies around the greens we’ll be focusing on Greens in Regulation this week. Diving deeper into GIR, we’re going to take a look at Proximity to the Hole as we want players who are giving themselves the best chances at birdie. With just three Par 5s this week, players will need to attack and score well on these holes thus we will focus on players with good Par 5 Scoring stats. Lastly, Course History will be monstrous this week as most of these guys have played this course several times and local knowledge/good track record will go a long way to finding success.
High End Targets ($9,000+)
• Jason Day
Being the hottest golfer on the planet right now, there’s no wonder Day makes his way to this list. The Aussie has won three of his last four starts on the PGA Tour with one of them being his dominate win at the PGA Championship. Over his career here at TPC Boston, Day is 7/7 in cuts made and has 2 Top 5s, 3 Top 10s and 5 Top 25s overall to his credit. Through 28 tournament rounds, he holds a scoring average of 68.61 as well. T9 in GIR% and T10 in Par 5 Scoring, Day is an elite fantasy option this week.
• Rory McIlroy
Getting back into the swing of things and rounding into form, Rory has some extreme positives on his side this week. In his first week back from that gruesome ankle injury, the Ulsterman finished 17th at the PGA Championship. Having made 4 starts here at the Deutsche Bank, Rors has racked up a win in 2012, a T5 in 2014, T47 in 2013 and a T37 in 2010. Through those 16 competitive rounds, he holds a scoring average of 68.38. There’s a chance we may be able to grab Rory at a fairly low ownership this week with the majority of people likely to be on Day and Spieth so this just ups his value even more.
• Henrik Stenson
The limber Swede is riding a season-long string of strong play as he’s yet to miss a cut in his 13 events. His most recent showing was a 2nd place finish last week to the aforementioned Jason Day. Stenson ranks 1st on Tour in GIR% hitting a foolish 74.07% of his greens. He slips a little (as does most of this limited field) in Proximity to the Hole where he ranks T168 at 37’8″ on average. However, he bounces back under the Par 5 Scoring category as he sits T43 at 4.62 strokes per. Stenson also has some Course History on his side as he’s 3/3 in cuts made which includes a win here in 2013. With his tremendous ability to avoid trouble and place himself in contention, Stenson is a superb play this week.
• Jim Furyk
I love Jimmyboy this week. The unorthodox American has some wicked Course history here as he’s finished no higher than 37th since 2010. Overall, Jim is 10/10 in cuts made here and hosts a 40 round scoring average of 69.18. That’s absolutely insane. Right on the line of our High End price range I’d love to see him go under owned but I think that may be asking a lot. Jim is solo 3rd in Proximity to the Hole, 27th in GIR% and T141 in Par 5 Scoring at 4.71 strokes per which makes sense as he’s a short hitter that relies heavily on his wedges. Everything we’re looking for is found in Jim this week making him a great piece to our puzzle.
Mid Range Targets ($8,900 – $7,000)
• Matt Kuchar
Kuch is another player who has been doing a lot of things right this year. Having missed the cut in just 1 of his 22 starts this year he’s been a true model of consistency. Kuch had a fair showing at last weeks Barclay’s where he finished in a tie for 39th at -1. Kuch actually made 15 birdies last week which is great for fantasy but he found trouble a few times which cost him dearly as he made 1 triple, 1 double and 9 bogeys. Ranking 88th in GIR% and solo 7th in Par 5 Scoring at 4.53 strokes per, I’m feeling a big week. He’s also enjoyed a lot of success at this tournament making the cut 9/11 times which includes a Top 5 and five Top 25s overall.
• Brooks Koepka
Let’s hope a little recency bias will creep in on this one and we can get Brooks at a low ownership after last weeks missed cut because his stats are SO GOOD for this course. He’s a virgin to this event as well which should assist in that low ownership. His form has been on point all year as he’s made 16/19 cuts with numerous Top 10 finishes. Here’s what makes Brooksy irresistible in my eyes: T74 in Proximity to the Hole, solo 11th in GIR% and solo 4th in Par 5 Scoring. That’s enough for me.
• Phil Mickelson
Another ‘horses for courses’ candidate is Phil this week. Lefty has crushed this event in his lifetime as he’s 8/8 in cuts made with 1 win, two Top 5s, three Top 10s and four Top 25s overall. Through his 31 rounds here he holds a 68.9 scoring average and has earned nearly $2M at this event alone, not bad. Phil’s Proximity and GIR stats aren’t the nicest this year but his T10 in Par 5 Scoring is a treat. He’s a bit of a reach play but even Stevie Wonder could see how good his track record is here which bumps the confidence.
• Robert Streb
If he hasn’t been in your lineup this year, you’ve probably left a lot of money on the table. Next to Jason Day, Streb has been arguably the hottest player in golf the last while. The American has made 10 of his last 10 cuts and hasn’t finished higher than T42 in that span. He finished 9th here last year which has been his only appearance in the event. Ranking 16th in GIR% and T57 in Par 5 Scoring, he’s a strong play as I expect his current form to continue.
Low End Targets (<$7,000)
• Jason Gore
Here’s a low priced guy whose been showing some great form of late. After finishing solo 2nd at the Wyndham, Gore followed it up with a T30 finish at last weeks Barclays tournament. Gore has some respectable history here as hes made 3/4 cuts and has one Top 25 finish to his name. The thing I like most about Gore this week is that he’s been playing well I know he has the ability to go very, very low on the course. Just 2 weeks ago at the Wyndham he fired a 3rd round 62 and a few years back when he was playing on the Nationwide Tour he joined the elusive 59 Club. He has the potential to absolutely break out and throw a ton of points up on the board. His stats also fit this course nicely as he’s 5th on Tour in Proximity to the Hole, 68th in GIR% and T124 in Par 5 Scoring.
• Camilo Villegas
Heating up at the right time, Villegas has enjoyed a lot of success over the years at this venue. The Columbia native is 9/9 in cuts made with one Top 5, two Top 10s and four Top 25s overall. Through 36 tournament rounds, Villegas has a scoring average of flat 70 here. Although his stats aren’t great under the categories we’re looking for, his game obviously fits this course well as is evidence by his long line of success here. At this price range we’re looking to hit it big and Camilo could be our ticket.
• Charles Howell III
Charles has strung together a nice little under the radar cut streak of 6. He seems to be a guy nobody thinks to roster and it’s kind of shocking. He has one of the smoothest and sweetest swings in the game so when he’s playing well we have to jump on board because mechanically speaking, there’s not much that can go wrong with his motion. Charles is 37th on Tour in GIR% and T27 in Par 5 Scoring, both of which are huge this week. He seems to like this course as well as he’s 10/11 in cuts made with one Top 5, two Top 10s and three Top 25s overall. He’s a cheeky option who should be rather low owned.
Best of luck to all competitors this week and if it’s not me winning all of the money, I surely hope it’s one of you!