It’s US Open week! I already have my 6 outright winner picks up, so check those out here.
The Milly Maker is back for the US Open this week at DraftKings and these targets are meant for that tournament. Someone will become a Millionaire this week at DK and hopefully it’s either me or one of you guys.
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I’m going straight to the top of the price list and taking DJ. I will have him in about 75% of my lineups this weekend, so I will be significantly overweight on the field and have most of my eggs in the Dustin Johnson basket. Pretty much all of the top guys have some question marks surrounding them, but I think DJ has the fewest and sets up the best for this course. He missed a cut recently at the Memorial, but that course is about as different as you can get from Erin Hills and outside of that tournament I’ve been happy with his game since the Masters injury. DJ has the length to really shorten this long course and he’s gaining 4.32 shots on the field over his past 4 events off the tee, which is a key stat this week. He should also have no problem hitting high into some of the elevated greens and his putting is still underrated. If he gets it rolling he can knock down everything within 10 feet, especially on a course with such nice greens as Erin Hills. The missed cut and injury question marks may keep his ownership down, but I think he’s by far the safest and most upside play this week.
Target: Dustin Johnson $12,000
Honourable mention up top to Jon Rahm who is a steal at $10,300. He will be very high owned, but rightfully so.
The $9000 range only has four golfers, so I’m including Sergio in this group. It’s a little bit of a tweak so that I can select him because I really like him this week, much more than the $9k golfers below him. Sergio is second on tour in strokes gained off the tee in the past 12 weeks and as I mentioned that’s a very important stat on this course. He’s played well since his Masters win, which is somewhat surprising because most of us expected a slight drop off after getting that elusive major. Now that he has it though his confidence should be sky high heading into the US Open and this course sets up very nicely for him. If he can throw darts with his approach shots like he was doing for much of the Masters, I think he has a great shot at getting the ball close to the pin and knocking down some putts.
I also expect people to fade him somewhat because he won the Masters, which is not the right strategy in my opinion. Golfers usually have low ownership the week after a win, and I think that same philosophy may translate to low ownership in the first major after a major win. I will be on Sergio once again and hope for a repeat.
Target: Sergio Garcia $10,000
One of the first things I noticed when checking out the salaries was that Adam Scott is under priced. This is a major winner who has two top 10’s in the past 3 US Open’s (T18 last year) and when he gets going his long irons are usually some of the best in the game. He’s been gaining about 2 shots on the field in his last 6 events and if he finds his long iron game and maintains his current putting form he is going to be a player to watch this week.
Plus, he’s a guy that just shows up at majors most of the time. At this price, I’ll definitely be having significant shares of Scott.
Target: Adam Scott $8800
There’s an absolute ton of options in the $7000 range, so it was very hard to select just one guy. But I decided to go down to the bottom of the range and pick Francesco Molinari as my top play in this range. He’s another guy who has been great off the tee lately. He’s not the longest hitter, but he’s picking up strokes on the field and has actually gained 2.73 strokes off the tee over the past 6 events. His form is also extremely strong with a T6 at the Players followed by a 2nd at the BMW PGA Championship in Europe and then a T24 last week at the St. Jude. I think his game is right where you want it to be and his game should allow him to get around this course.
Target: Francesco Molinari $7000
At the bottom range I’m going straight to Billy Horschel. He’s 90/1 to win the tournament at Bet365.com, which are extremely short odds for this price tag. He’s a great value play at this price and his game is trending in the right direction with a win at the Byron Nelson a month ago and then a strong T4 performance last week thanks to a low 64 in the final round. Horschel gains strokes off the tee and is putting great. If you need to dip down to the $6000’s he’s a great option.
Target: Billy Horschel $6700